I mentioned how great it is that we keep seeing these troughs in my previous post, and there's a chance of another, stronger one, early next week, but the impacts on northern Utah vary substantially depending on the forecast model.
The GFS forecast valid 1200 UTC (0600 MDT) Monday shows a deep trough over the northwest U.S. with a cold front moving through northern Utah.
The GFS then brings the trough directly through the northern half of the state and by 1200 UTC (0600 MDT) Tuesday, forecast 700-mb temperatures are just below 0˚C, cold enough for snow in the upper elevations above probably 9000 feet, although possibly lower.
However, the ECMWF has a much different evolution for northern Utah. It stalls the trough over the Pacific states.
We would probably see a cold frontal passage at low levels in that solution, but it's a tough call. Additionally, it would be drier and snow levels would not be as low.
Thumbnail 500-mb plots from the GEFS all show a trough over the western US, but with varying amplitudes and speeds.
|Source: Penn State E-wall|
The bottom line is that you should monitor forecasts in the coming days to see how this plays out. Ahead of the trough we could see elevated fire-weather risk with wind and low humidities. Near the trough, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Much will depend on track, intensity, and movement and the range of possible outcomes for any given location in northern Utah is quite large.