Monday, November 26, 2018

Some Storminess for the Southwest U.S.

The next 7-10 days we will see something that we've seen little of over the last few years (with one notable seasonal exception) and that is a series of storms affecting the southwest U.S.

The loop below covers the period from 1200 UTC 24 November through 1200 UTC 1 December with jet-level wind speeds in excess of 40 meters per second (80 knots) color filled.  Note how the jet stream over the eastern Pacific and most of the US is south of 40ÂșN for much of the period, especially after 1200 UTC 27 November (5 AM MDT Tuesday).

With the storm track to the south, the southwest will be seeing a series of storms and getting some much needed precipitation.  Over the next 10 days, the GFS is putting out over 4 inches of water equivalent the Sierra Nevada (peaks over 6 inches) and more than 2 inches in higher altitude areas of Utah and western Colorado.

This is not a pattern with a huge tap of persistent, tropical moisture.  Thus, water totals are not ginormous, but that's probably a good thing.  Over the next seven days, the downscaled NAEFS product is generating a mean of just over 4 inches of water equivalent and 40 inches of snow for the Central Sierra Snow Lab near Truckee, CA, with most members putting out over 2.5 inches of water and 25 inches of snow.

The Wasatch will see something from these storms as well.

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