Sunday, November 12, 2017

Curb Your Enthusiasm

We've reached the time of year where every wiggle in the jet stream becomes enticing. 

Call it what you want.  The November doldrums.  Purgatory.  There's not enough snow to ski in the central Wasatch and we need more.

I'm already getting inquiries about the storm later this coming work work week.  My advice?  Curb your enthusiasm.

That advice is not because I think the storm will be a bust, but because we are still a few days out and the ensembles are showing a wide range of possible outcomes, from relatively light accumulations to up to 14 inches at Alta-Collins.  Typically, ensembles are underdispersive, meaning that range probably underestimates the full range of possible outcomes.  In other words, we don't really know much yet except that a trough will be coming through and we'll probably see some snow. 

What I do know is that today will be a lovely mid November Sunday.  Enjoy it. 


  1. I have a trip planned to the BCC (Brighton, Solitude) for the end of December. Do you think it is time to panic and cancel, or is this weather typical for Utah in November?

    1. I'm not issuing any guarantees, but this is no time to panic. November has always been a fickle month.

  2. Thank you for your thoughts. I gathered from your description of "November doldrums" that a dry/warm November was not uncommon. Obviously, longer-term forecasts are unreliable, but Evan Thayer's most recent post on Open Snow got me concerned about the dry/warm spell lasting past Thanksgiving.