Friday, November 3, 2017

No Skiing This Weekend

Between now and late Monday, we are in this sort of bits and pieces pattern, one in which there is strong southwesterly to westerly flow at crest level, but the main moisture plume is to our north.  The Tetons are in the cross hairs and we're on the fringe. 

As a result, we will see some periods of snow and snow showers at upper elevations through Monday afternoon.  These snow and snow showers will add up some, with the average water equivalent produced at Alta-Collins by our downscaled SREF product reaching just over 1.5 inches by Monday afternoon (07/00Z). 

Most members are between about 0.5 and 2.0 inches of water, which would probably be anywhere from 5 to 20 inches of snow at these temperatures.  There's an outside chance that we'd do better if the orographics kick in or the plume drifts a bit further south than currently predicted, but my view is that there won't be any skiing this weekend. 

It's worth taking a look at the broader regional picture.  Note in particular that the highest water equivalents forecast by our downscaled SREF product through Friday afternoon are found in the mountains of eastern Idaho and western Montana, including the Tetons and Wind Rivers. 

The plume diagram for Rendezvous Bowl at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort is tightly clustered, with a range of accumulations of about 1.5 to 3 inches from midnight last night through the forecast period.  Much of this precipitation falls by late tomorrow afternoon.   
A break is likely after Monday.  There are hints of the potential for more action later next week, but it's too far out to waste energy on at this time. 


  1. Curious - does what's happening now in Ogden and at Pow Mow qualify as lake effect? All morning (11/3) it looks like SW flow with precip forming on the NE side of the lake and dumping rain/snow in the Ogden Valley.

    1. I'm inclined to say that you are primarily seeing an orographic effect. The current lake temperature is around 11ºC. Air temperatures are a few degrees higher than that. This is not a recipe for a strong flux of heat and moisture from the lake into the atmosphere.

      I'm more inclined to say that you are primarily seeing an orographic response. Although the radar echoes start upstream of the initial slope of the Wasatch, this is not uncommon as the mountain response often extends upsteram.

      These are, however, hypotheses, subject to testing and refinement.


  2. No skiing?