Friday, February 26, 2016

Dust-on-Crust Uncertainty

Desperate times call for desperate measures, so today we talk about the dust-on-crust uncertainty for tomorrow.  The loop below shows a sequence of forecasts for tomorrow afternoon from GFS runs initialized from 0000 UTC on the 25th to 1200 UTC on the 26th (this morning).  Note how the area of precipitation shifts southward into northern Utah, then back north, then southward again, then back north.

Basically, this indicates some uncertainty in the track of the storm.  If the northern track verifies, we'll probably see anything from a trace to an inch of snow.  If the southern track verifies, maybe we get 2-3 inches.  For what it is worth, at Alta-Collins the NCAR 3-km ensemble calls for very little precipitation and the NAM is going for an inch, so I'm just hoping the wind doesn't blow too hard to ruin whatever high-north powder remains in the upper elevation backcountry.  


  1. From the top of LCC it looked and felt like there was some desert dust transport taking place around ~3 PM. Any verification of that in satellite or other imagery? Tough to tell from the appearance of the snow surface when it hasn't snowed in a week+, as the snow surface tends to bear some sediment in these circumstances anyway.

    1. That was dust. It came in with the front and the post-frontal northwesterly flow.

      Complete shutout on snow. NCAR ensemble wins. GFS loses. Will be doing a short backcountry corn harvest today. February is the new April...