Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Deja Vu All Over Again

That's my favorite post title when we are in a stormy pattern and it still appears like we are on track for another pasting related to the inland penetration of another potent atmospheric river, as discussed in previous posts.  As I write this at 10 am MST, snow is falling at upper elevations in the mountains and we have a classic "cloud storm" scenario in the Salt Lake Valley in which the sky is full of virga, but just a few raindrops are surviving to reach the ground.

This morning's "cloud storm" from the Salt Lake City International Airport
This cloud storm scenario occurs when the moisture and dynamics for precipitation development are elevated and we have dry air at low levels, as can be seen in this morning's sounding.  

Source: NCAR/RAL
Forecasts are largely on track from yesterday with atmospheric-river-related precipitation spreading into northern Utah today and persisting through tomorrow.  In the upper Cottonwoods, the model forecasts are actually a bit wetter than yesterday's, with this morning's 12-km NAM generating 1.75 inches of water by 5 PM tomorrow (Thursday).  Such water totals might be on the high side, but something in the 1-1.75 inch range for Alta-Collins seems like a good bet.  Most of this will fall as high-density snow at upper elevations with snow levels rising to perhaps 8000 feet.   

Yup, another Cascadian experience, but it skied well last weekend.  Ski it if it's white.  

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