Possible Snow...Or Not

It's that time of year when a cold upper-level trough can bring the goods and enable some early season turns.  Because early snow often rots into weak, faceted snow that can create dangerous avalanche conditions (see last year's post "Patience Young Jedi Knight"), I typically hope that Mother Nature holds off until November.  However, I know many of you are chopping at the bit for the first dump of the year.

The latest runs from the GFS and ECMWF forecast models call for an upper-level trough to move into the western United States next week.  Here are a couple of snippets from the GFS just to whet your appetite.

If that forecast verifies, chances are good that many will be hiking for turns late next week, especially those with a high tolerance for bony conditions.  

Or not.  The extended range forecasts have been entirely unreliable the past week or two.  Conditions over and downstream of the Pacific Ocean have simply been highly unpredictable at long lead times.  Each day I come to the office, pull up the extended range forecast, and scratch my head because it has changed so much.

Thus, keep an eye on the forecasts and keep the mountain bike tuned while you get the skis waxed.   Perhaps things will come together, but if not, single track still beckons.