Current forecast models have Sandy making landfall somewhere between the Delmarva Peninsula and New York City. For example, the NAM initialized this morning (1200 UTC 28 Oct) has Sandy making landfall in central New Jersey.
1200 UTC 28 Oct 2012 initialized NAM forecast of 12-h accumulated precipitation (inches color filled), 925 mb streamlines, and 850-mb 0ºC isotherm (red) valid 0000 UTC 30 Oct 2012. |
The influence of these ranges continues as Sandy moves inland and the flow over the region transitions to southeasterly, with the Adirondacks also getting in on the action.
1200 UTC 28 Oct 2012 initialized NAM forecast of 12-h accumulated precipitation (inches color filled), 925 mb streamlines, and 850-mb 0ºC isotherm (red) valid 1200 UTC 30 Oct 2012. |
But for skiers the real interesting orographic effects happen in West Virginia. During the period encapsulated by the images above, the mountains of West Virginia are in moist northwesterly flow and experience strong upslope. In addition, Sandy taps into colder air that is presently in place over the midwest. The red line in the images above shows the 0ºC isotherm at 850 mb (about 5000 ft) and you can see the tongue of cold air that wraps across West Virginia and around Sandy.
Thus, the upper-elevaitons of the mountains of West Virginia are expected to experience heavy snowfall during this period. Check out this morning's National Weather Service forecast for Snowshoe.
Source: NWS |
"SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL"
In addition, the storm is broad in scale and will have impacts across much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States. Effects will vary, however, depending on location. This is a complicated storm. Stay tuned to forecasts and heed warnings if you live in areas that will be affected by the storm.
Hi Jim, I knew I could come here for some great analysis of this storm. Do you have any suggestions on where to find similar analysis of the storm and all of its complex intricacies that make it so unique, aside from NOAA Discussions? Coverage on CNN and the major outlets just doesn’t cut it.
ReplyDeleteI really appreciate your blog and all of the in-depth coverage and analysis you provide.
Try Jeff Master's Wunderblog and the Capital Weather Gang. A quick google should get you to them.
DeleteEchoed - thank you.
Delete