Friday, June 19, 2015

When Will We Hit 100?

Yesterday's high at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 98ºF.  The only temperature that I hate more than 98 is 99ºF.  If we must be stuck with US units and it is going to be that hot, it should hit 100.  Will we finally get there in the days ahead?

It won't be today.  We've had a weak trough passage and the air behind it is a smidge cooler than yesterday.

Through the weekend, our best chance may be Sunday, but it's going to be close.  There is a weak trough approaching from the west and if it comes in late in the day or in the evening so that we're in the warm southerlies, we'll make a run at 100.  The NAM and GFS forecast 700-mb temperatures for 6 PM Sunday are 16.8ºC and 16.5ºC, respectively, which is a bit higher than it was yesterday afternoon.  Both models put the trough over northern Utah (GFS) below at that time.

It's gonna be close.  If the trough is a bit slower than currently progged, then a high of 99–102 seems likely.  Knock that down a couple of degrees if it's a bit faster.

In case you are wondering, the extended range forecasts show nothing but hot and dry for the next week and beyond.  Steel yourself for full bore nuclear summer.  It's against my better judgement to icon-based extended forecasts (see Ten-Day Icon Based Forecasts Are Bogus), but The Weather Channel forecast for Salt Lake City pretty much tells the tale.

Source: The Weather Channel

1 comment:

  1. Back-of-the-envelope calculations assuming that the 10-day forecast is correct (a big assumption I know) suggest that June 2015 would break the old record warmest June (1988) by 2F, which would be quite remarkable, but perhaps run-of-the-mill for 2015.