Prediction: Snow Storage Is Coming to a Utah Ski Area

Now that my political prediction career is over, let's turn to something else: Snow.

The Washington Post reported on October 27 that Ruka Ski Resort in Finland opened on October 10th using snow from last year.  Nope, they didn't have so much snow last year that it lingered through summer.  Instead, they piled it into huge mounds, covered it with sawdust and a reflective covering, and then spread it around in October.

Source: Washington Post photo by Evgeny Pavlov/Ponchikz Photoz

More info and photos here.

We first discussed the potential for snow storage coming to Utah back in March.  Although the idea needs evaluation for both viability and environmental reasons, this fall provides a prime example of why I see this happening in the future (or, alternatively, the use of refrigerated snowmaking).  It is an impossibility to effectively make snow right now.  Check out the meteograms for the past week at Alta-Mt. Baldy (top, 11,000 ft) and the Alta Base.  The former has not dropped below 30ºF for 6 days.  The latter has not dropped below 32ºF during that period.  

To be sure, we are not at the end of our rope for early season skiing.  The jet stream will look favorably upon us in future Octobers and\ Novembers.  However, Thanksgiving skiing is important to the ski resort and early season natural snow and snowmaking weather are going to become less common as we move through the 21st century.  Alternatives will be sought.  

A good activity for intellectually curious snow-science students would be to evaluate how much snow would need to be stored at the end of ski season for a resort like Alta to be able to open a single run down Collins Gulch.  Is it viable to do this in Utah's hot summer weather?  If you can make it to November, you're probably in good shape in Collins Gulch as the sun angle is low enough that there wouldn't be a huge loss of snow to melt.  If anyone digs into this problem, let me know as it would be an interesting post.  

Make America Cold Again

The weather is relatively benign across the contiguous today and ideal for voter turnout.  A high-amplitude ridge prevails over the western half of the country, with a weak upper-level trough bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to eastern Texas and the Ohio and Mississippi River Valley region this morning.

I rummaged quickly for an analysis showing the departure from average temperature forecast for today and found the one below from Intellicast.  Cartoony yes, but it gets the point across that most of the contiguous US is experiencing mild or warm weather today.  Snow will not prevent anyone from getting to the polls.  Even in Alaska, the weather doesn't look terrible by their standards (and we needn't mention Hawaii).

Source: Intellicast

I suspect that this is good news for the Democrats, who I think get a bit of a boost with high voter turnout.  Regardless of the results, skiers look forward to making America cold again.  

How to Excite Skiers with Medium Range Forecasts

Good news!  The GFS is predicting the passage of a bonafide upper-level trough and surface cold front next Thursday.  Snow is coming at last, right?

Not so fast.  It's so easy cherry pick from the medium-range forecast models and ensembles a solution that will raise the stoke.  Alternatively, I could just say that there's some hope in the forecasts for later in the month.

The more complete picture is that there is remarkable spread in the forecasts for next Thursday.  Just look at the GEFS forecast below.  You can find whatever you want in those forecasts.  The spread is HUGE.

In other words, we have no idea what the weather will be like next Thursday.  Sure, there are a few solutions that suggest the possibility of a storm, but others that show continuation of the same boring, monotonous pattern.  Endorsing either of these solutions makes little sense scientifically.

Don't be a cherry picker.  And, more importantly, don't forget to vote.

Deep Pollution Is Better Than Shallow

With only scant snow available at higher elevations, about the only thing one can do is take advantage of the nice mountain weather for a little hiking or mountain biking.  Yesterday, my son and I climbed Mt. Olympus, which I haven't done in many years.  I had forgotten what a ruthless climb that is and this morning I'm reminded that I'm no spring chicken anymore.

The hike did afford us the opportunity to gain a visual perspective on the pollution.  The photo below looks southward along the Wasatch Front toward Utah County.  Note how the eastern Traverse Range is fully enveloped in smog and that the pollution top along the Wasatch Range is somewhat ill-defined.

The deeper pollution is actually good news for city dwellers since it means we are mixing our emissions through a deeper layer, which leads to lower near-valley-floor concentrations.  On the other hand, if you wish to escape the pollution entirely, you need to go higher.  Further, the boundary between the polluted and clean air wasn't sharply defined yesterday.  During both the ascent and descent, I found it difficult to determine when we were in it or out of it.  You see some evidence in the photo above of pollution transport up the western face of the Wasatch and perhaps this made the pollution gradient on Mt. Olympus somewhat ill defined.

In terms of concentrations on the valley floor, the University of Utah observing site at Neil Armstrong Academy in the West Valley showed a steady long-term increase over the past four days with a peak late yesterday near 35 ug/m3.

Source: Mesowest

That rate of rise is somewhat lower than I would expect in a mid-winter, snow-covered inversion event and a likely consequence of the fact that we're able to get somewhat deeper mixing in this event.  In addition, we've seen a drop in concentrations over the past 12 hours or so, so I suspect that overall today will be better than yesterday, although I wonder if we'll see pollution concentrations bump up with the airmass from over the Great Salt Lake pushes through the valley.  

Gird yourself for a long continuation of this weather pattern.  Pity we're back on standard time as the evening mountain bikes were fun. 

First "Inversion" of the Season

Although we've had some brief periods of moderate air quality this fall, we're in the grips of what I'll call our first bonafide "inversion" event of the season.

The photo below, taken yesterday afternoon from the Bonneville Shoreline Trail in the Avenues Foothills, showed a very well defined pollution layer extending to perhaps about 6500 or 7000 feet.

The corresponding sounding taken that afternoon showed a shallow surface-based mixed layer that extended to about 850 mb (1597 m; 5240 ft) above which the atmosphere was nearly isothermal (i.e., constant temperature) with height to 775 mb.

Source: SPC

Because density depends on temperature and pressure, the atmosphere does not need to be inverted to be strongly stable.  Isothermal layers are quite stable and limit mixing a great deal.  Indeed that was the case yesterday.  With an isothermal layer over the valley, our emissions could not escape, leading to a layer of gunk at low levels as evident in the photo above.

PM2.5 concentrations this afternoon reached almost 30 ug/m3, which is in the upper half of the moderate category.  Then the dropped abruptly, although that looks awfully spurious to me.

Source: Utah DAQ

Welcome to inversion season.

The Cubs Win and the Weather Apocalypse Follows

After 108 years, the Cubs won the World Series last night.  One of my meteorological friends and a lifetime Cubs fan posted up the observations below from the Automated Surface Observing Site in Hell and not surprisingly Hell froze over approximately 4 minutes following the last out.

And, it gets worse than that.  In the wake of the Cubs win, the large-scale pattern over the Northern Hemisphere goes absolutely apocalyptic.  Below is the 138-hour GFS dynamic tropopause (jet-stream level) forecast valid 0600 UTC Wednesday November 9th.  Huge ridge over interior North America.  The pattern is so anomalous that the jet-stream level flow over Utah is actually from the east.  

And, if when Hell freezes over, heaven must suffer.  In the Wasatch Range, the closest observing site that we can find to heaven is Mt. Baldy (11,000 ft) where temperatures have not fallen below 30ºF since midnight.  Further,  the forecast temperature time series for Mt. Baldy from the GFS keeps temperatures above 30ºF for at least the next week.

The GFS does struggle forecasting the local conditions right on Mt. Baldy and I suspect we may see some periods at night where we drop below 30, but really this situation is all screwed up and getting screwier.

If this continues, my appreciation for Cubs fans and Bill Murray will erode rapidly.