Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Serious Situation But Storm Winding Down

We are deep into outlier mode with Mother Nature calling the shots in the Cottonwoods.  Storm-total snowfall reports from the NWS includes 67" at Snowbird and 63" at Alta.  Snow depth at Alta-Collins now at all-time levels, peaking at 248" last night and currently at 247".  I went to be last night hoping that the storm would end and I'd wake up to a couple of inches on the Collins stake.  Instead, it ended up being another 15.  


The situation in the Cottonwoods is quite serious.  I can't remember Big Cottonwood closing for a full day, but that's what UDOT announced this morning.  It's possible it happened when Argenta hit the road in January 1996.  The Utah Avalanche Center report for that year said it was the first time in 50 years Argenta hit the road and West Porter ran huge, dusting cabins in Porter Fork (see Utah Avalanche Forecast Center Annual Report 1995–1996, see pages 6–7).

Alta Town Marshall Mike Morey issued the update below this morning, illustrating the seriousness of the situation.  

Early this morning, upper-level winds backed from northwesterly to westerly and the coverage and intensity of snow showers has declined in the Salt Lake Valley and Cottonwoods.  The latest radar shows the strongest echoes in the northern Wasatch and in the Brigham City area.

Today looks to be changeable.  Eventually you will see some sun at times, but also some snow showers as the surface heating bubbles things up.  There could be an angry inch here or there in the Salt Lake Valley, but net accumulations will generally be light and scattered.  In the mountains, a best guess is 2-4 inches, but hope for less.  

The end is nigh.  The models are shifting the storm track to our north and bringing warmer weather our way.  Expect a reprieve through early next week.  Sun and warmth will return and many will emerge from their winter cocoons like all the whos in whoville on Christmas day singing happy tunes with big smiles on their faces.

Whether or not we will be moving from one natural hazard (dry avalanches) to others (wet avalanches and flooding) remains to be seen.  

8 comments:

  1. Great work on your blog -- the older I get the more intune I become with the weather -- good God ... I'm becoming my father, for the love.

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  2. The drive down from Brighton last night could only be described as truly harrowing. Even with snow tires, AWD, and two decades of winter driving skills, it was the straight-up scariest drive of my life.

    Hit the lake effect band mid-canyon and it was carnage from there on out. Even saw a Canyon Patrol car slide off into a snow bank.

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  3. Hi Jim,

    Thank you for continuing to provide quality content and information on your blog. Speaking of immense snowfall totals, could you speak on the validity of the snotel station located on Ben Lomond? If the cumulative SWE is accurate, it would seem reasonable to assume that this section of Wasatch peaks has eclipsed 1000" of snowfall thus far this year.

    https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi?BLPU1

    Thanks,
    Matt

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    1. Looks valid. Click on "high resolution" and add 1984 (the previous Max Year), they're at least comparable. Would be difficult to tally up the snow total in inches for each day due to compression, but if you had the will you could technically get a good estimate: https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=332

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  4. Thanks for all of the great info, very enjoyable to follow! Educational as well! Would be curious to hear any speculation on melt out timing and or how much/ if any snow makes it through the summer. Did any snow make it through in 2011?

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    1. All snotel stations have melted out every year in the period of record, but patches can last on very sheltered high north aspects (i.e. the Timpanogos "glacier", which even today does not fully melt all surface snow in most years). I'd bet some more sheltered patches than usual lasted through that summer. In 2019 as late as August there was snow on the Alpine Ridge visible from the valley.

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  5. It seems to me that BCC closed for 3 days when Argenta ran thru a forest of 75 year old trees. And I thought that was much more recently than 1986, sometime between 1996 and 2000. I remember riding the UTA thru the gap when the road opened. Big timber was sticking out of the snowbanks.

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    1. You are right. It was 1996. 1986 was a typo. I've corrected that

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