I am deeply conflicted right now. I'm super excited to see the snow piling up. It appeals to my meteorological and hedonistic senses.
However, I'm once again deeply concerned about the avalanche situation. We are just so far into outlier mode. So much snow, greased paths, over 20 inches of water since March 1st, and now another enormous storm cycle.
Let's look at the numbers from Alta-Collins. 10 inches yesterday through 4 PM. 17 inches overnight through 5 AM. 6 inches in 2 hours from 5-7 AM. That's 29 inches in 24 hours. Water during that period 1.63", so that's about 5.6% water content on average. Storm total water equivalent is now about 2.1".
One contributor to these snow totals was a lake-effect band that formed overnight. We haven't seen such a well developed and long-lived band of this type in a long time.
Snowfall rates were also high mid canyon, which is consistent with the band position. UDOT operates a snow and weather station at Elberts a bit below Snowbird. They did not wipe the board yesterday. 24-hour snowfall there was 27 inches. All of that snow falling into problematic mid-canyon avalanche paths.
Forecasts suggest the periods of snow showers will continue today and tonight. We are now deep into the post-frontal crapshoot where the timing and position of snow showers cannot be anticipated all that well. The models agree on moisture and instability, but not necessarily on flow direction. The 12Z HRRR for example, has NW flow at 700 mb through 0600 UTC tonight before backing the winds to westerly during the day tomorrow.
The 6Z GFS has more of a westerly component, especially at low levels.
From 6 AM this morning through 6 AM tomorrow, the HRRR is only producing .25" of water and 4.2 inches of snow for Alta Collins. That would probably be a blessing.
The GFS is going for 0.79" and 14.3" of snow.
How's that for spread. Like I said, the post-frontal crap shoot.
How about I do something different and go for another 8-16" from 6 AM this morning through 6 AM tomorrow and HOPE FOR LESS.
Oh yeah, as I type this, the 8 am ob just came in and Alta-Collins has reached the coveted 240 inch/20 ft snow depth mark.
It's a season of a lifetime, and hopefully one we get through safely enough between avy and flood risk.
ReplyDeleteWhat an incredible experience it's been to ski soft conditions almost all year, to be interlodged (in my case at least), and watch endless storms roll by like boxcars on an endlessly long train. You wonder when is the caboose going to be coming along and how long is this train? So many storms seem to have overdelivered as well which has been fascinating to witness.
While making the 900" club would be something else, nothing wrong if the counter stops around 850 and 20ft depth. Something about those numbers seem very fitting.
900 inches is very much in reach. We're sitting at 851" as of 3 PM today, and more is coming through tomorrow. The NWS warning calls for 6-12" with up to 18" in the upper Cottonwoods, so let's say they underperform that slightly and get 9", so we'd need 40" for the rest of the year. We still have most of April ahead of us, plus all of May (though the resort won't measure that late). Per Wikipedia, Alta averages 50 inches of snow in April and 16 inches in May, and I believe those numbers are from the COOP site which typically gets less than Collins. While it does look like a drier period coming up for a while, I definitely wouldn't throw out the 900" possibility yet.
DeleteWish it wouldn't stop, to be honest. Another month like this and we'd be in contention with Baker for the "World Snowfall Record" (official, anyways), right? It's like riding a high and every storm fuels us powder junkies for another hit, lol. I know the repercussions would be really bad, but damn it's just been so tantalizingly tasty lately.
ReplyDeleteWould be a fun post to look at official world snowfall records (unless you've already done that one), based on observed snow depth and SWE. My bet would be unofficial areas in AK or Japan taking the record there, but who knows?
Incredible year, fun to watch for us weather junkies/skiers! The latest HRRR (16Z) and the 12Z 4km WRF-GFS are both showing a nice lake band again tonight in the SLC valley.
ReplyDeleteWatching this from afar, having left the Wasatch in fall 11 after what I thought was a once in a lifetime winter, it is truly astounding. Apocalyptic? Add it to the list. Everybody was fretting flooding in spring 11 when Maycember went nuclear and as I recall it was mostly a non event? I was homeless in sugarhood at the time and I don't remember any raging torrents. So flooding tbd. But hey what drought? Humans will be able to continue to grow grass and play golf in a desert. Brilliant.
ReplyDeleteEveryone seems to think 2011 wasn't that bad of a flood year just because City Creek didn't flood downtown like it did in 83. As I recall there was plenty of flooding that spring, and I remember the lower Weber getting hit particularly hard (particularly remember watching one news story where people were kayaking down the streets of Plain City). I think both Cottonwoods flooded as well. Didn't even Emigration Creek reach flood stage?
Deleteyeah, the entire Weber system got hit hard that year. headwaters down to the lake, Ogden and south fork Ogden rivers too
DeleteI am very interested in the potential impact that the water vapor thay the Honga Tonga eruption in January of 2022 pumped into the stratosphere is having on our season here. Every storm is overproducing. My theory is that the additional water up there is giving more juice to all these atmospheric river events pounding Utah and California this winter.
ReplyDelete22 in the cove as of this morning!
ReplyDelete