Closing weekend is upon us for many Utah ski resorts, including Alta. It looks like Mother Nature will provide some frosting later today and tonight as a parting gift.
Below is the GFS forecast valid 0000 UTC 22 April (6 PM Friday) showing strong northwesterly flow with high integrated vapor transport impinging on the Wasatch Range. Call it an atmospheric river if you want, although vapor transport values are only marginally near what is typically used as the atmospheric river threshold (250 kg/m/s).
Combined with a weak trough/front passage and of course great orographic forcing, we should see mountain snow showers develop during the day today and continue into the evening hours. There may be a few snow showers into tomorrow, although right now the models are advertising minimal accumulations after tonight.
For Alta, the HRRR is putting out 0.57" of water and 4" of high density snow. The high-density snow reflects the strong winds that are expected.
The GFS is a bit wetter, putting out 0.65" of water and 6" of high-density snow through 6 AM tomorrow, plus a skiff more in fits and starts during the day tomorrow.
Probably 4-8 inches is most likely, although if this were to bust, I think it would bust high rather than low. I have no idea how it will ski. I haven't skied since last Sunday and don't know if the bit of snow we've had this week has smoothed things out or if we're dealing with coral reef. High density snow and wind are sometimes helpful in situations like this. Keep expectations low and hope for the best.
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