Tuesday, October 25, 2022

LCC Forecast Updates

Effective with the 1200 UTC 24 October GFS run, the GFS-derived Little Cottonwood forecast guidance product on weather.utah.edu (direct link: https://www.inscc.utah.edu/~steenburgh/ml/lccforecast.html) has been updated with new equations for forecasting key variables.  

Specifically, the Mt. Baldy wind, temperature, and dewpoint forecast guidance now includes another cool season (2021/22) for training and the snow-to-liquid ratio (and derived snowfall amount) uses a new algorithm that includes data from multiple western U.S. snow safety sites.  I expect these changes to make small improvements in accuracy, with the snow-to-liquid ratio exhibiting more dependence on wind speed.  The guidance also goes to 180 hours and the data feed we are using should be faster and more reliable than what we used last year.  

Below is the guidance from last night's 6Z GFS.  

Enjoy, and remember this is forecast guidance, not an official forecast.  Consult National Weather Service and Utah Avalanche Center forecasts.  

Comments and complaints accepted but not appreciated (lol).

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