Gift from the Gods

The next three days are going to be exciting and interesting for weather and snow lovers as a major spring storm moves through the region.  

Today a surface cold front slowly sags into and intensifies over the Great Basin.  The GFS forecast valid 0000 UTC (6 PM MDT) this afternoon shows the front extending across central Nevada and northern Utah very near the Salt Lake City.  For much of the day, we will see strong southwesterly pre-frontal flow, possibly with dust (I assume you haven't had enough of that).  

The northern Wasatch Front will probably see a shift to westerly or northwesterly flow late in the day, but it's unclear if that will happen in the Salt Lake Valley.  Right now I'd say the odds favor that not happening, but I can't rule it out, especially for the northern part of the valley.  It will, however, be a dry front this afternoon, so the main impact will be on winds and temperatures.  

The models differ on the exact movement and position of the front overnight, although they keep it over northern Utah.  The GFS forecast valid 1200 UTC (0600 MDT) Friday morning has a disorganized surface front over northern Utah with the precipitation band to its northwest is filling in nicely.  The flow at upper levels and for the central Wasatch remains strong and out of the southwest. 

On Friday, the GFS does two things.  First, it develops widespread showers ahead of the frontal precipitation band by 1800 UTC (1200 MDT).  At that time, the frontal band is moving into northwest Utah and its leading edge is over the West Desert.  Note the accompanying surface wind shift in the lower right-hand panel below.    

That afternoon, the frontal band moves in and the flow shifts to northwesterly, with widespread precipitation over most of northern Utah by 0000 UTC (1800 MDT) Friday.  

Friday night is the post-frontal crap shoot with mountain induced precipitation over and upstream of the Wasatch Range and a chance of a little lake-effect involvement. 

By and large, Saturday looks like a gift from the gods.  Our GFS derived forecast for upper Little Cottonwood shows a total of 1.35" of water and 18" of snow for Alta-Collins through 9 AM Saturday, with some additional precipitation during the day.  

The ECMWF model is just a bit below that.  By 23/18Z (1200 MDT) Saturday the SREF has 3 low members under five inches to give one heartburn, but 18 out of 26 members generate 10 inches of snow or more.  

Make some turns for me.