Patience Is a Virtue

Most skiers and snowboarders are salivating right now at the prospects of a deep-powder day.  Snow is in the forecast and excitement is running high.  

However, this is a classic patience is a virtue pattern.  Today's early action is scattered, with accumulations hit and miss and primarily consisting of high-density snow at upper elevations.  Most of the precipitation is being produced by surface heating.  You may even have heard some thunder.  

The precipitation tonight is also scattered.  If you're lucky, your favorite ski area might get hit by something that is intense and moves slowly, but it might also get little.  

A look the GFS shows a more organized frontal system developing Saturday night, pivoting over northern Utah, and then rotating through the area on Sunday.  Below is the GFS forecast for 1500 UTC 6 March (8 AM Sunday) with a moist front producing a band of organized precipitation extending from southwest to northeast across Salt Lake City and the Wasatch Range.  

A look at the GFS-derived forecast for Little Cottonwood shows only 0.5" of water equivalent and about 7" of higher-density snow through 5 PM Saturday.  

That's better than nothing, but things really pick up late Saturday and Saturday night.  and then continue through Sunday.  From 5 PM Saturday through 5 PM Sunday, the GFS generates another 0.8" of water and 14" of lower density snow for Alta.  

Most members of the SREF are similarly most excited for late Saturday and Saturday night (i.e., around or after 06/00Z, which is 5 PM MST Saturday).  There's a great deal of spread, with 3 members producing less than 10" of snow total for the period and 5 more than 30, but most are in the 12 to 22 inch range for Alta, which would be great.  

The bottom line is that there won't be much snow today.  Although not out of the realm of possibility that things light up a bit tonight or early tomorrow, chances are it won't be until tomorrow afternoon or evening that things really start to get going.  If it comes in early, late Saturday laps might be fun tomorrow at Alta.  If not, deep powder will need to wait until Sunday.  In times like these, I tend to monitor the Alta-Collins interval stake religiously and adjust plans based on if and when Mother Nature brings the goods.