As we near the end of February and the home stretch of the snowpack accumulation season, snowpack water equivalents are running pretty close to average across much of the western U.S.
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| Source: NRCS |
There is, however, reason to be concerned in the southwest where the snowpack in the mountains of Arizona and much of New Mexico are running below average. I flew over this area about 10 days ago and was blown away by the lack of snow. Similarly, the southern Sierra are now running at only 88% of average for the date (left hand value below, right is percent of the April 1st average).
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| Source: California Department of Water Resources |
And, while one always needs to be cautious with extended-range forecasts, there's really not much being produced by the models over the next 1-2 weeks for the southwest. Just to underscore that point, below is the 8-14 day precipitation outlook for the first week of March.
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| Source: CPC |
Oh, where art thou El Nino? I see your warm sea-surface temperatures, but where are your storms?
Interesting resource I would like to share re: extended forecasts.
ReplyDeletehttp://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/25/as-a-titanic-el-nino-begins-to-fade-what-fresh-trouble-will-a-record-warm-world-bring/
Ketchikan had 24" of rain and overall temps 5-6 deg above normal for February. El Friggin Nino is alive and well.
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