This Will Be the Hottest Fall on Record

Given the fact that we are experiencing our coldest temperatures since February, much of the Salt Lake Valley is snow covered, and we have a 40" base in upper Little Cottonwood Canyon, it may be hard to believe this is going to be the hottest fall on record, but it is going to be the hottest fall on record. 

With one day left to go into the record books (today), the average temperature for this fall at the Salt Lake City International Airport sits at 57.7ºF, 0.7ºF warmer than 2015.  

Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers

Although we are going to lose a little ground today, my hazy, jet-lagged, early morning math suggests we will come out ahead of 2015 when today is in the books.  Regardless, both years add to our string of five consecutive years with exceptionally warm falls.  How much the recent fall warmth is due to long-term global warming or climate variability is an interesting question.  Thanks to global warming, the dice are loaded for above average temperatures, but my view is that the last few years the large-scale flow has also been favorable for us to have warmer falls.  

Good Early Season Skiing Begins

I've been traveling for work and unfortunately missed out on most of the excitement today.  Further evidence that the best way to ensure a big storm in the Wasatch is to send me out of town.

As of 9 PM, it looks like a total at Alta since 0000 MST 27 November (Sunday) of about 40" based on accumulations on the interval board.  Total snow depth broke the 40" barrier this evening, qualifying for the start of "good early season conditions" on the Steenburgh scale.

Thanks to Mother Nature for making Utah snow again!

Things Are Looking Good and I'm Not Going to Jinx the Next Storm

Is there anything better than storm skiing on a day that you can just make out the sun through the clouds?  

From last night through 3 PM this afternoon, the Alta-Collins stake has picked up 13" of snow with 0.78" of water.  If you picked your routes carefully to avoid rocks and stumps, the ski touring today was quite nice.

Forecasts are optimistic with another trough coming in tomorrow morning with deep moisture and instability.

After a lull in the storm tonight, the NAM puts out about 14 inches of snow from 6 am tomorrow morning through 11 AM Tuesday at Alta.  Most of this falls by 11 PM Monday.

That's a hefty amount of snow for that model, which doesn't fully capture the influence of the Wasatch Range.

Since part of the storm extends beyond the forecast range of the NCAR ensemble, here's the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system plumes for Alta.  Most call for things to pick up tomorrow morning with heavy snow through the day tomorrow.

I've been goofing off this weekend and won't be issuing a forecast.  Yup, that's a cop out, but this looks like a good storm so why jinx it?  

Opening Day 2016/17

The winds were blustery, but the sky sunny for our first day of the season today.  

Although there were many tracks, some good powder could be found in shady, wind-sheltered areas.  Even on my old-school touring skis, the kid showed decent form.

More snow is in the forecast, which will hopefully help the resorts and the backcountry.

There's Much To Be Thankful For

Happy Thanksgiving to all Wasatch Weather Weenies.  We have much to be thankful for.

First we have yesterday afternoon's frontal passage, which pushed into the Salt Lake Valley with one hell of a shelf cloud and frontal nose.

Second we have the overnight storm, which was fueled by the front, the orographic lift of the central Wasatch, and the lake.  The latter two can be seen below in the form of a narrow, but intense lake band over the southern Great Salt Lake and a region of enhanced radar reflectivity over and upstream of the central Wasatch.  Note also the narrow precipitation shadow downstream of the central Wasatch.  Sorry Wasatch Mountain State Park, no soup for you.  

Third we have a spectacular snow coated Thanksgiving Day with clear skies and unlimited visibility.  I love sunrises like this morning's.

Finally, we have 12 inches of new snow at Alta, making it two storms in a row that have produced near the top of forecast expectations.  At last measurement, total snow depth at Alta-Collins sits at 20 inches.

Alta Ski Area reports that they are closed to uphill skiing, although the Albion access road and Catherines area are open.  Additionally, the Utah Avalanche Center rates the avalanche hazard at Considerable.  Don't let irrational exuberance get the best of you if you are heading out today.

Lake and Orographic Effects in Wake of Frontal Passage

There's much to love in the radar loop below taken in the wake of this evening's frontal passage.  The box over the Great Salt Lake shows an area of persistent triggering of lake-effect convection, which trains southeastward into the Salt Lake Valley where it transitions to a broader, more stratiform band.  Meanwhile, the orographic effects in the central Wasatch (larger box) are also persistent and pronounced.  Note the persistent echoes over the high terrain with the abrupt rain shadow further to the southeast.  The Salt Lake County/Utah County line strongly marks the transition.

Alta picked up a fast 6" of snow through 8 PM and there's good reason to expect more moderate to heavy snow for the next hour.  After that, everything will depend on the post-frontal and lake-effect crap shoot.