Snow Report and Forecast

Update from Jim @6PM:  Due to an issue on our server, the NAEFS forecast used below is old.  Updated forecasts still show scant precipitation until the 16th.  Let's hope things look better after that.

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Wait and see is the summary of the forecast today.  

Snow conditions on the "Collins Glacier" improved marginally this past week thanks largely to artificial snow which helped improve the cover a bit, although there are many areas even along the main line where the snowpack remains scant.  The view from Germania Pass pretty much tells the story and shows why Alta is hesitant to open.  There's still a lot of work to do before they have adequate top-to-bottom coverage on even a single run. 

The coverage is probably best in the high collection areas up high (Ballroom, Baldy Shoulder), at least in those areas that are not littered with big rocks, and ironically near the base where they have made a good deal of snow. 

Still, it's low-tide conditions.  I skied cautiously and still tagged a few.  

The NAEFS looks a good deal like it did on Thursday when I last did a post: Flatlined for most of the forecast period.  There are a few excited forecast members out there at the end of the forecast period.  

There's always hope in the extended-range forecasts but there's not point in getting excited until you can see the whites of the storm's eyes.  In this case, less than 20% of the ensemble members are producing ≥ 10" of snow and quite a few others are producing near zilch.  

It's worth keeping in mind that it's early.  We got spoiled the past two seasons with October snow, but some years the start of ski season is a slog.