Saturday, January 15, 2022

Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

How to describe forecasts for the next 14 days?  Awful?  Dismal? Pathetic?

It's not impossible that some trough sneaks through the grips of the high-amplitude ridge and gives us a few flakes, but for the most part, it looks like a lock that we're going to see well-below average precipitation and mountain snowfall over the next two weeks.  

On average this time of year we should be getting about 3.5 inches of water equivalent and 40 inches of snow at Alta every two weeks.  We'll be lucky to get 0.5 and 5 and if the majority of models are right, we'll get close to nothing.  

Here's an example, the Euro over the next 10 days.  No precipitation in the central Wasatch. 

Source: Pivotal Weather

And how about the CPC 8-14 day outlook.

Source: CPC

A good forecast if you're into valley pollution and hate snow.  For the rest of us, it sucks.

Below is the mean water equivalent in the Jordan River Basin (including the central Wasatch) based on SNOTEL stations.  Note that we've plateaued at 10.2". Unless forecasts change dramatically, we're probably going to be back at or below median by January 25th.  

Source: NRCS

Basically, Mother Nature is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for this snow season.  January should not be like this.  It should be cold and we should be skiing powder.  Instead, the next couple of weeks will probably be a net loss for the lower elevations, especially in sun exposed areas, and perhaps even at mid-to-upper elevations on the south side of the compass.  


No comments:

Post a Comment