Yup, things are coming together nicely, if you live in Arizona. The front and accompanying precipitation band sagged into northern Utah last night. Looks like the most snow fell in the northern Wasatch, with Snowbasin and Powder Mountain reporting 3 and 5 inches respectively. Chalk this one up to the NAM and the SREF, which didn't push the front as far south and gave the greatest odds of .25" of precipitation in the Wasatch north of Big Cottonwood. As was forecast by both models, however, the precipitation band is moving back to the north this morning. C'est la vie.
My view of the forecast for the next couple of days is that this remains a pattern that is ripe for disappointing Wasatch skiers. It is not impossible that we pick up several inches of snow somewhere, but we are simply outside of the good dynamics, orographics, and moisture. I'm going to once again emphasize the forecast produced by the Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF), which is comprised of 21 forecasts produced at 16-km grid spacing. The average of these forecasts calls for .05 to .10 inches of SWE over the Wasatch Range for the 24-hour period ending tomorrow morning at 1200 UTC (0500 MST), with a maximum of .25 inches over the Uintas. It's a bit wetter for the following 24-hour period, ending on Saturday morning at 1200 UTC (0500 MST), but still, this is not a pattern where one would expect a deep powder day in the Wasatch.
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SREF weighted mean 24-hour precipitation and 700-mb
temperature and wind valid 1200 UTC 8 March 2013 |
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SREF weighted mean 24-hour precipitation and 700-mb
temperature and wind valid 1200 UTC 9 March 2013 |
Looking at things probabalistically, the SREF probability of >0.25 inches of SWE for the 24-hour period ending at 1200 UTC (0500 MST) Saturday is greatest east of the Wastach and over the Uintas.
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SREF probability of >0.25 inches of snow water equivalent (every 20%) and
weighted mean 700-mb temperature and wind valid 1200 UTC 9 March 2013 |
So, I see this as a pattern that is ripe for disappointment. Perhaps a few snow showers late tonight that don't add up to much, and then hope for a few inches Friday and Friday night. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we get lucky and get more, but something needs to spiral around the low and light things up for that to happen. These are tricky situations, but my take is that the odds of that are fairly low and it is better to have low expectations and be surprised than to have high expectations and be disappointed.
"These are tricky situations, but my take is that the odds of that are fairly low and it is better to have low expectations and be surprised than to have high expectations and be disappointed."
ReplyDeleteAgreed! I'm tired of getting battered and bruised by my expectations this winter, especially in Big Cottonwood where I ride, which seems to have had exceptionally bad luck this season.
At this point my only question is whether it can get any worse? Seems unlikely, but after raising our hopes with a decent December, there hasn't been much since that would lead us to believe otherwise. Anyway, I appreciate your blog and admire anybody who can balance skiing/snowboarding with weather forecasting without going insane!