Observations from Mt. Baldy and Hidden Peak

Beating the heat, I did a quick climb of Mt. Baldy and Hidden Peak this morning, giving my knees a break with a descent via the Snowbird Tram.  Some observations.

I was on the summit of Mt. Baldy at about 9:45 am.  The view to the east was a scene from the Great Smokies and a good example of how smoke can become trapped in valley cold pools that develop overnight. 

We've been fortunate in the Salt Lake Valley to have not been in the smoke plume except for a brief period late Thursday night and Friday. 

For snow lovers, I found the patch below at about 9400 feet in an area where contributions of artificial snow to the snowpack would probably be small to non-existent. 

I'm guessing it is the lowest remaining snow in the Wasatch.  Prove me wrong...

Finally, a little comparison of the snowpack on this date (8 July), compared photos I've taken in July the previous two years.  The situation this yea is pretty grim.  Just a few patches to be had on the north side of Twin Peaks and in the usual spots in Upper Hogum. 

Last summer was preceded by a much better snow season and it shows.  The photo below was taken 22 July 2017 when you could almost send it down the Pipeline couloir and coverage in upper Hogum was more extensive. 

If we go back a bit further, to 26 July 2015, one find a situation in which there was virtually no snow except in a few very small pockets. 

Will we get to nearly snow free by the end of the month and will we have a snow-free Wasatch before the start of the next snow accumulation season?  Time will tell. 

Campfire Weather and Bad Air Quality Are Here

Ah, July.  Triple digit temperatures, wildfires, and bad air quality.

So far this month, the Salt Lake Valley has escaped the smoke, but that all changed overnight and residents awoke this morning to a smoky scene.

Yes indeed, the smell of campfire is in the air, sadly without the smores.

This is an educated guess based on the HRRR-Smoke and regional analyses, but I suspect this smoke is from origins to the south, including the West Valley Fire north of St. George, rather than the Dollar Ridge Fire to the east or the Hogan Fire to the west.  With more digging, perhaps one of you can nail it down for me.

Regardless, the PM2.5 levels in the Salt Lake Valley have risen.  The trace from Hawthorne Elementary tells the tale.  Of course, the worst air quality of the past 5 days occurred at 11 PM on the 4th of July when PM2.5 peaked at 64.7 ug/m3, which is at unhealthy levels.  The joys of fireworks.

Source: DAQ

After a recovery yesterday, however, the smoke moved in after about 10 PM last night, with PM2.5 levels thereafter hovering just over 40 ug/m3, which is unhealthy for sensitive groups.

The Purple Air network appears to have a good handle on this event and its spatial structure.  PM2.5 at about 8:40 AM this morning appeared to be highest along the east bench and lowest in the West Valley.  If one peaks along the screenshot bottom, you can find the highest values in Utah County.  

In fact, one can find some stations down there with values at the upper-end unhealthy levels.  Such variability is not uncommon with smoke plumes.

The NWS forecast high for this afternoon at the Salt Lake City International Airport is 102˚F.  If there was no smoke, we would expect the combination of a high-angle July sun, high temperatures, and the usual urban pollution to lead to high ozone.  This has happened consistently the past 5 days, with the highest values reaching unhealthy for sensitive groups yesterday afternoon.

Source: DAQ

Ozone is produced by photochemical reactions that occur in sunlight between pollution and naturally occurring gasses in the atmosphere.  This is one reason why ozone typically peaks in the afternoon (give or take a few hours).  The chemicals in wildfire smoke typically up the ante and lead to more elevated ozone levels.  We will probably see ozone levels in the unhealthy for sensitive groups level this afternoon, but higher values are possible and could combine with elevated PM2.5, if the smoke lingers.

Addendum @9:05 AM:

I realized after posting this article that the term "campfire weather" in the title might be misconstrued to suggest that it's a good time to have a fire.  That is definitely NOT the case.  In this instance, it simply means that it smells like a campfire. 

Addendum @9:10 AM:

DAQ reporting smoke may be from Dollar Ridge Fire and there are some winds in surface mesonet data over the region with an easterly component.  Thus, my gut on this could be wrong.  Comments from sleuthing types out there appreciated as I need to get some work done...

The Fickle Relationship Between Rain and Fire

Everyone is hoping for a major dousing of rainfall for the Dollar Ridge Fire raging east of Strawberry Reservoir.

Some sprinkles have been noted in the vicinity today, as reported, for example, by Jed Boal of KSL News.

A few raindrops on the windshield near Woodland as we head out to #DollarRidgeFire. Firefighters could use that moisture further west! @KSL5TV @UtahWildfire @UtahEmergency pic.twitter.com/N7SDWvYtt2

— Jed Boal (@jedboal) July 5, 2018

However, sprinkles are not enough and they may do more harm than good because of the fickle relationship that exists between rain and fire.

A best-case scenario for taming the wildfire and reducing (or eliminating) extreme and erratic fire behavior is a situation with high relative humidity, cool temperatures, light wind, and steady precipitation. 

On the other hand, while sprinkles may temporarily increase the relative humidity, they can cause more harm than good by initiating gusty winds or microbursts that lead to erratic or extreme fire behavior. 

That is my concern today.  The morning sounding from the Salt Lake City International Airport shows remarkably dry low levels ripe for the production of strong microbursts. 

Source: SPC

 Meteorologists use a variable, known as Downward Convective Available Potential Energy, or DCAPE, to quantify the amount of energy that may be produced by cold, dense air produced by evaporation.  This morning's sounding had a DCAPE of 860 J/kg, which is quite high.  In other words, conditions are ripe for microburst winds. 

The latest radar shows scattered, but weak cells in the fire region.  These might produce some sprinkles or light rain, but it will be brief and probably accompanied by gusty winds. 

So, if you are praying for rain, be specific.  Sprinkles are not good enough and you could be causing more harm than good.  We need a prolonged period of rainfall or, if that's not not possible, a period of cooler weather with higher relative humidity, weak winds, and no microbursts.  

Dollar Ridge "Time Lapse" from Mt. Nebo

Intensification of the Dollar Ridge fire was very evident today as I descended from the summit of Mt. Nebo.  The photos below are in chronological order and were taken from 11:21 AM to 1:52 PM.  This is a very common occurrence as temperatures climb and the the so-called boundary layer, in which thermals and turbulence generated at the Earth's surface occur, deepens.  Note the formation of pyrocumulus clouds as well.  Sadly I only had the cell phone. 

Portable weather stations at about 9000 feet near the fire showed temperatures in the 70s, relative humidities near 10% and winds gusting to 30 mph.  It doesn't get much worse than that.  The low humidity was very apparent on my hike as I consumed 64 ounces of water, despite an early start, and still returned to the trailhead completely parched. 

Fires and fireworks should simply be avoided this holiday week.

A Bad Independence Day to Play with Fire

I'm not fan of the tomfoolery that occurs on and around the Independence Day holiday.  Most years, the potential for human-sparked wildfire is high enough, but this year, things are especially bad.

The latest forecast from the USFS shows extreme fire danger across most of Utah, with only the strip along the Idaho border in the low category. 

Source: USFS

Basically, most of Utah is a tinderbox.  Meanwhile the National Weather Service has nearly the entire state in the pink, indicating a red-flag warning that for most of the state currently extends through midnight tonight and reflects a combination of heat, low humidity, and strong winds that may be persistent or gusty. 

Source: NWS

Even if we are not under red-flag conditions tomorrow, the state is still a tinderbox.

The potential for disaster is well illustrated by the Dollar Ridge Fire southeast of Strawberry Reservoir, which produced smoke that was clearly evident in yesterday's MODIS imagery. 

Source: NASA, USFS Geospatial Technology and Applications Center

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the Dollar Ridge Fire began on private property and is believed to be human caused.  It was first reported at 1 PM on July 1st.  My son and I actually saw the initial plume while on East Castle around that time.  It quickly burned nearly 7,000 acres by that evening.  The latest news reports suggest that it has now burned 30,000 acres.  I've yet to confirm that at the National Interagency Fire Center web site, but it could be it just hasn't updated yet.

The bottom line is that we have met the enemy and it is us.  Let's hope we don't have a strong nominee (or nominees) for a Darwin Award when the holiday week comes to an end.

Clean Air and Incredible Views Never Felt So Good!

What an airmass!  After two weeks of nearly continuous travel, what a treat it was to climb the East Castle today with about the most pristine airmass you will find in Utah in the summer. 

My trip to Beijing was fun and rewarding, but after breathing the smog there, clean air and incredible views like those pictured below never felt so good. 

The Clean Air and Water Acts have paid huge dividends for this country. The Clean Air Act became law in 1970 and was passed by the Senate without a single opposing vote. Let me repeat that. One of the most sweeping and important environmental protection laws passed the Senate without opposition. George H. W. Bush sought to strengthen the act and amendments were passed by an 89-11 vote in the Senate during his presidency. At the time, Mitch McConnell voted for the amendment and said "I had to choose between cleaner air and the status quo. I chose cleaner air."

So do I. The view that we have a choice between a healthy environment or a growing economy is a false dichotomy. Clean air, clean water, a vibrant economy, and high quality of life go hand in hand. 

I look forward to a clean energy and clean air future.