Slim Pickings

It's looking like the last week of February and the first two days of March will largely be snowfree in the central Wasatch.  We have a weak cold front moving through today, but it's a dry one.  If it wasn't for the wind and the lower temperatures this afternoon, you probably wouldn't have noticed it.

The Utah Snow Ensemble is flatlined until 2 March when a couple plucky members produce a little snow.  Most hold off until 0000 UTC 3 March or later.  After that, the various ensemble members are throwing spaghetti on the wall.  Some do nothing, others up to 40" of snow.  The spread in the runs is pretty consistent from 0 to 40.  Your guess is as good as mine for what's going to happen.  

The reason for that spread is the highly split flow forecast to pervade over the west.  The latest Euro forecast valid 0000 UTC Monday 3 March shows the pronounced split over the eastern Pacific with one branch of the jet moving northward through Canada and the other southward across Baja, northern Mexico, and the southwest US. 

There is a closed low embedded in the southern branch of the jet, and that's the main hope for later in the forecast period.  

These are the times that try water manager's souls.  We had just gotten the mid- and upper-elevation snowpack up near average after the last storm cycle, but a long dry patch now would not be helpful.  It will make it more difficult to get to a near average snowpack at the end of the snow accumulation season and could spread out the runoff period.  It's perhaps a little early to worry about that, but now that March is a approaching, it's something to ponder.  Perhaps the wetter forecasts will verify and we'll get a more active mid March to prevent that from happening.