Saturday, November 9, 2024

Colorado and (gasp!) Texas Running Away With It

 Looking for snow?  Forget the Collins glacier.  Go to Alta or maybe Texas.  

Over the last four days, Colorado, New Mexico, far western Oklahoma, and the upper northwest corner of Teas were absolutely pounded.  This includes the high planes.  Texline, TX recorded 24" of snow.  Boise City, OK, not Idaho, recorded 26".  


The big winner was a site 12.9 miles ENE of Fort Garland with 53.3".  The NWS does not provide specific locations for privacy reasons, but that looks to be a site in the low pass through the Sangre de Cristo between the San Luis Valley and the I-25 Corridor.  Some big numbers as well in the high plains of Colorado and the mountains of New Mexico.  A look at Angel Fire (40") this morning.

https://www.angelfireresort.com/weather/

I've always wanted to ski there just for the name.  One of the best in the business. 

The fattest snowpacks in the Utahrado region are now in the San Juans and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. The big winner (blueish dot) is Beartown at 11,600 feet which is sitting at 7.7 inches.  This is the equivalent of their median snowpack on December 20th, so they are running about 6 weeks ahead of median. 

Source: NRCS

Hayden Pass in the Sangre De Cristos now sits at 5.8 inches, the equivalent of their median on December 28 and way above anything on record, although observations at this site start only in 2008.  


There are, however, other sites at record levels for this date in the Sangre de Cristos, Pikes Peak, and Buffalo Peaks.  These are historically dry areas, so an extreme event like this is really exceptional. 

It's a weak La Nina year and this has guided seasonal forecasts.  Here's one for Nov-Jan from the Climate Prediction Center that now looks on track to bust for at least parts of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.  


This one event has produced about 2/3 of the average Nov-Jan precipitation showing how an extreme weather event can strongly contribute to seasonal precipitation and snowfall.  This is a characteristic of the cool-season snow climate of some regions of the western United States that is often overlooked when seasonal forecasts are being issued.  It introduces an element of randomness to the year-to-year variability in western precipitation that can limit the reliability of seasonal forecasts based on long-term means and similar analyses.  There is a good paper by Lute and Abatzoglou (2014) showing that 20-38% of the annual snowfall water equivalent and about 2/3 of the year-to-year variability in that metric can be attributed to the top ten decile (10% largest) snowfall events in portions of the western United States.  Basically, a handful of big events, sometimes just one or two, make or break the season.

Congratulations to the early season snowfall winners.  

16 comments:

  1. All in good competitive fun, but cool to get a CO shoutout on here. Could this be the year that Jim takes a trip to CO in search of better powder? 😂

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  2. "Wow, such extreme snowfall! 53.3 inches is incredible—nature truly amazes me."l sealer manufacturer
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  3. "The Sangre de Cristo Mountains seem to be stealing the show this season!"
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  4. "I didn’t realize how much a single storm could contribute to the seasonal totals—fascinating!"
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  5. "Angel Fire with 40 inches sounds like a skier’s paradise. That name alone makes me want to visit!"
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  6. "This La Niña season is full of surprises! The predictions definitely seem off-track."
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  7. "The variability in snowfall from year to year really highlights how unpredictable weather can be."
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  8. "That 7.7 inches at Beartown being six weeks ahead of schedule is mind-blowing."
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  9. "Seasonal forecasts need to account for these random extreme events more—such a great point!"
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  10. "It’s amazing how a few big storms can define an entire snow season in the western U.S."
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  11. "Congratulations to the winners! I hope they enjoy the record-breaking snowfall."
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  12. "The comparison to median snowpacks really puts this storm into perspective. Amazing stats!"
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  13. "Such an exceptional weather event for historically dry areas. Definitely one for the books!"
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  14. "The early snowfall levels are incredible! This must be a dream for winter sports enthusiasts."
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