Believe it or not it is looking increasingly likely that we will see an end to endless summer later this week. The models are advertising the movement of an upper-level trough over the western later this week. We may first begin to feel it's effects Wednesday with an increase in southerly flow and a last warm day as the trough approaches and then cooler air moves in later in the week. The GFS forecast for 1200 UTC 18 October has a bonafide cold front over northern Utah.
Timing and amounts vary with the ECMWF ENS members generally being drier than the GEFS. Through 1200 UTC 19 Oct (6 AM MDT) the former produces an average of about 0.75" water and 6" of snow at Alta Collins. The latter is at about 1.6" of water and 16" of snow. A look at the plan view plot for the Wasatch Front at that time shows a mean for the ENS and GEFS combined of 10.6" at Alta Collins and even some light amounts in the valley (<1").
The spread is still large though, so we will see how this comes together in the coming days. However, our long stretch of days with above average high temperatures, which extends back to September 22, looks to be over later next week and probably after Wednesday unless the trough and cold front are slow to arrive.
Good riddance to this endless summer. It kills me to hear a/c units running in the neighborhood in the middle of October.
ReplyDeleteY’all really hate summer haha. I will say I don’t like the heat either, but is it too much to ask for some fall weather before it goes straight into winter? 1-2 weeks is all I ask 😂
DeleteFYI I don't know if this is more widespread but I can't view the utah snow ensemble. I get a forever loading page where the page header and left menu are there but none of the model outputs (plumes, maps, etc) ever show up. Also happened last week. Internet works fine elsewhere on the web.
ReplyDeleteUpdate: It required about 20 minutes to load the first time, and now it loads instantly every time even after closing the browser. Something to do with large cookies perhaps?
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