Thursday, August 31, 2023

Labor Day Monsoon Surge

It looks like an active Labor Day weekend (not to mention tomorrow) in the weather department.  The models are advertising a potent monsoon surge similar to the two previous big ones we've had so far this summer.  

The GFS forecast below for 0000 UTC 2 September (6 PM MDT Friday) shows an upper-level trough over northern California and an upper-level ridge over Kansas. Between these two systems is southerly flow and northward vapor transport at all levels with moisture streaming into Utah from the subtropics and Gulf of California.  

Bottom line is expect showers and thunderstorms beginning tomorrow and through the Labor Day weekend.  I'll add that the models are also forecasting that the west-coast trough will become mobile over the weekend and move through Utah late Sunday and Sunday night, which could yield a frontal passage and an especially active period of thunderstorms and rain.  

It's been a wet water year (October – September), so it seems appropriate that we have wet Labor Day weekend as we enter the last month.  

My plan is to stay home and take advantage of the breaks.  If you are heading out, consult National Weather Service forecasts, monitor watches and warnings, and be aware of flash flood and lightning risk.  

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