We Need This to Stop

I never thought I'd say this, but we need this to stop.  We need the onslaught of storms to end, for the snowpack to settle, and for spring to begin.  

Snowdepths and snowfall amounts right now are just ridiculous.  Let's start at the Ben Lomond Peak SNOTEL, which is at an elevation of only 7688 ft (I'm not sure why it says 8000 ft in the figure below).  Snowpack water equivalent at that site is now 78.7 inches, the highest on record, easily toping the 74.0" observed in 1984 (yes, 1984 at this site was higher than 1983).  

A meteorologist friend of mine was wondering if this might be the highest snowpack water equivalent ever observed in Utah.  I suspect that's likely.  Perhaps someone out there can do some digging.  

Down in the Cottonwoods, the Mill D North SNOTEL is now at 51.7", well above the prior 2011 record of 44.3".  Records here, however, only go back to 1989 and don't cover those big early 1980s years.   

Perhaps most relevant to what I want to talk about here is how steep the snowpack water equivalent has been rising at these and other sites.  Mother Nature has added over 10" of water to the snowpack since March 15th.  Snowbird has also added a bit over 10" of water since that time.  Talk about load and stress!  

Meanwhile, the Alta-Collins site picked up 19" of snow from 9 PM last night to 7 AM this morning, including a 6" increase from 1 to 1 AM.  This is on top of the 14" that fell the previous night.  Total snowfall for the season is now over

800 INCHES!

Insane.  They are also well over 200 inches for the month.  I'm not sure what the resort record is, but the Alta-Guard snowfall record for a month is 244.5" set in December 1983.  We must be getting close to that.  

All of this puts us deep into outlier territory.  Readers of this blog know that I like to say beware when the atmosphere is in outlier mode.  I woke up this morning, saw the huge snowfall numbers, and looked at the forecast and got a pit in my stomach.  An incredibly deep snowpack.  So much new snow.  Slide paths that are greased. 

And then I looked at the forecast and saw the GFS, after a break tomorrow, was forecasting over 3" of water and 40" of snow for Sunday through Tuesday.  

Then I about threw up.  The NAEFS mean is lower and around 2" of SWE, but still a significant event.  

This must stop now.  Both canyons are currently closed.  The UDOT Cottonwood Canyons site reported that a natural bank sluff hit the road this morning.  They are extending the estimated time of opening (ETO) now to 11 AM.  The last I looked, there is no ETO for Little Cottonwood.  Snow safety crews have been working the ragged edge all season, but especially over the last month.  Avalanche threats exist not only in the Cottonwoods, but also along other highways where such slides are less common and only occur in big years.  

And we haven't even talked about the runoff.  

I am hoping we get through this cycle without incident and that after that we see a shift to something resembling spring with some longer breaks between storms.  Both the GFS and the ECMWF are advertising a high-amplitude ridge to develop along the Pacific Coast by later next week and be parked there by 0000 UTC 10 April (6 PM MDT Sunday).  

Let's hope it happens.