Do you ever wonder what it would be like if it started snowing and never stopped?
- Steve Casimiro, Editor, Powder Magazine, 1987-1998
It's been a long week at the HAARP Weather Control Center. About a month ago, someone "discovered" that the Sierra-Wasatch snowstorm lever was locked at 11. Nobody knows who did it or when it happened, but it is jammed. They've tried shifting other levers to control the storm track over the past month, to no avail.
Weather and snow-depth sensors in the Wasatch are starting to disappear, like this one at Snowbird (photo from Sunday, 19 March).
The medium-range forecasts are clued in on this and continue to provide a parade of storms for the Wasatch Range. Last night Alta picked up another 7 inches, with their total snow depth hitting 190 inches at 6 AM this morning. The models continue to advertise more snow for today with the HRRR producing 1.27" of water and 15.4" of snow at Alta-Collins from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM tomorrow morning and the GFS 0.9" of water and 12" of snow.
Let's go with 12-18" and hope that comes through. No need to hope for more when the models are in the Goldilocks range.
Time for blogging has been limited this week. I've been quite occupied with the day job. If you see me on campus, treat me like one of this season's cornices and give me a wide berth. Grumpiness abounds.
I feel you on that last paragraph Jim.
ReplyDeleteIt's been a long, hard 2 days since I last skied
DeleteDo you have an estimate of what the SWE equivalent would have been at the Snowbird snotel site back in 1983? It looks like the current record for SWE since 1990 was 75.1" on June 1st 2011. I'm guessing it could have been as high as 80" in 1983...
ReplyDeleteI don't work enough with snowpack to have that. There would be snow course data available around 1 April from that year, although I'm not sure if there was a site near the current SNOTEL site.
DeleteLook up the snotel data from Ben Lomond from the early 80’s. Current SWE is 67”. I believe ‘83 or 84’ it got up to 110” SWE. Try and imagine that.
Delete@Anonymous, you got me interested in Ben Lomond Peak data. Looking at https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/WCIS/AWS_PLOTS/siteCharts/POR/WTEQ/UT/Ben%20Lomond%20Peak.html the all time max SWE was 74" in 1984.
DeleteBen Lomond Trail is well above its all time peak.
DeleteFor those wondering the image posted is a snow depth sensor in upper Peruvian Gulch, not to be confused with the official snotel site at Snowbird which is located next to the mid-gad restaurant.
ReplyDeleteThe first year the Bird put in a terrain park(just above old little cloud chair), mid nineties which were all big winters, it disappeared within days.
ReplyDeleteAnnoyed the NWS CBRFC cancelled their Utah water supply webinar for this Friday and moved it to April 7th. I want my flood forecasts now!!!
ReplyDeleteReal talk though, I'll be shocked if we make it out of this without big flood issues somewhere in northern Utah. 2011 was nearly the best case scenario with how to melt such a huge snowpack, and we've already passed 2011 in peak SWE. Given forecasts for continued snow and cold, it's looking like the big melt may look more like 1983 than 2011...
Has Alta ever hit 200 inches on the ground before? Might get close this week. Your blog history has a lot of close calls in 2011 but can't see if it ever got there. Perhaps one of those 1980s years...
ReplyDeleteYes it has. I think in 2011. I either included this in a blog or a tweet, but have forgotten the details.
DeleteThis is from an employee at Alta. "We hit 211" in 2005. 206" in 2011.Our all-time recording is 236" on May 19th after we had closed in 1983. That same season it was reading 224" on April 3rd."
DeleteI can confirm 211" in 2005 https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?product=&past=1&stn=CLN&unit=0&time=LOCAL&day1=31&month1=03&year1=2005&hour1=01
Delete2006 got up to 189" in early Apr and was not far below that during late Mar and most of Apr. Two really good years back to back that we tend to forget about.
Soft turns heal all grumpiness.
ReplyDeleteWhat are we calling sping periods after alta hits 200" base?
ReplyDeleteStatewide average SWE is up to 0.1" below the 1983 record...
ReplyDeleteOne thing that concerns me about these snowfall numbers is that the number of stations today is different than it was then. I don't know if this is being accounted for. It's perhaps a nuance not worth worrying about, but it would be good to compare apples to apples.
DeleteCorrection. Snowpack numbers.
DeleteI had the same thought. I haven't had time to do a deeper dive into where all of these new stations are, but it appears that of the 68 stations that were active by the early 1980s, their average elevation was 8669 feet, whereas the 46 sites installed since then have an average elevation of 8268 feet. So if there is a high bias in recent years, it's not because they only installed a bunch of high elevation stations.
DeleteSo I’m sure we’re all stoked for the powder tomorrow (breaking out the touring gear for 1 last go round). Would you take a request for a long term wish cast for some hope for sunshine though? I miss bluebird days and might help with the lingering seasonal depression haha
ReplyDeleteIts over when its over. Theres many sunny days ahead when well wish for this
Delete200 inches at Alta and two snow squall warnings today...our cup runneth over with meteorological goodness
ReplyDelete