Cold for the Start of the Olympic Games

 Beijing China is 15 hours ahead of Salt Lake City and 8 hours ahead of the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) used widely by forecasters.  The former means that you can watch morning and early afternoon events from the next day before going to bed and the evening events from that day on delay when you get up in the morning.  

The past two nights I've watched some of the training for the Men's Downhill.  There are multiple story lines here.  Let's begin with the venue, the Yanqing National Alpine Skiing Centre.  I visited it in 2018 as part of an educational meeting on Olympic weather monitoring and forecasting.  It was in the early stages of construction.  It certainly looked to have the vertical and steepness needed for a decent Olympic downhill, but prior to the building of the resort, the area was largely undeveloped.  

We were told that it the resort averaged 25 inches of snow a year, but it is possible that was 25 cm (about 10 inches) as some things are easily lost in translation.  I don't think anyone knew what the actual number was for that specific location except that it was considerably drier than other Olympic Alpine skiing venues and snow was rare.  No weather stations had been installed on the mountain yet (there may have been one at the base and there was a very comprehensive atmospheric monitoring station near the entrance to the valley where the National Sliding Centre was being built).  I remember we discussed the need for comprehensive monitoring of wind along the downhill course, which eventually happened.  We were not allowed to take pictures.  

Fast forward to today and the start of the Olympic Games and we now have a pretty good look at the fully constructed venue.  A good suite of photos were published a couple of days ago by Ski Racing.  Below is the finish area.  The course is covered with a sinewy path of artificial snow surrounded by barren dirt and rocks.  Below is the finish.  

Source: Ski Racing

On the other hand, it seems to be a fairly interesting and challenging course.  Artificial snow makes for a dense, hard surface that is often quite good for Alpine ski racing and the dry, cold climate and lack of natural snow at Yanqing allows for optimal course preparation.  On instagram, American skier Ryan Cochran-Siegle said that "spectacular snow and tantalizing terrain should make for some amazing race conditions" and in media reports Austrian skier Vincent Kriechmayr said that the course was "amazing" and that "the course conditions are some of the best I've ever seen."

It's been interesting watching the racers learn a new course during the first two training sessions, but I've also enjoyed watching the weather.  It has been cold and windy.  Today's start (last night Salt Lake time) for the 2nd training run was delayed for an hour.  I took a look at why.  The sea-level pressure analysis from China's National Meteorological Center for 8 am, about 3 hours prior to the scheduled 11 am start time showed a strong Siberian High with a central pressure of more than 1067 mb. Beijing and the outdoor venues on the southeast edge where there was a strong pressure gradient.  

That's a good recipe for cold, windy conditions and that's exactly what happened.  At the 11 am scheduled start time, it was -24.2˚C (-12˚F) with wind gusts of 18.8 m/s (42 mph) at the start.  

The training was delayed and started an hour later, although it was still quite cold and windy.  Beat Feuz wore a full face covering.  Others some tape.  All of the racers at the bottom were moving their jaws to free up their tightened faces.  

Another training is scheduled for 11 am tomorrow 5 February (8 PM tonight Salt Lake Time) and then the official race for the same time on 6 February.  It looks like it will be a bit warmer warmer, but if my read of the ECMWF guidance is accurate, temperatures at the start will probably still be at or just below 0˚F.  I hope the winds subside some.  Aerodynamics and safety are important and the variability of the wind may play some role in determining the outcome.  

The Nordic Center a bit farther north is also experiencing cold and wind.  Today (4 February) the morning minimum temperature was -24.2˚C (-12˚F) with a maximum of -15.3˚C (4˚F).  

It was also windy, with gusts reaching 10 meters per second (22 miles per hour), so even though the air temperature was higher, there was a pretty good wind chill. 

The first competition scheduled for 3:45 PM Beijing time tomorrow (5 February) is the Women's skiathalon, a combination of 7.5 km classic and 7.5 km freestyle techniques.  It may be a bit warmer, but it appears that the race will likely occur with air temperatures in the single digits Fahrenheit.  I'm not sure if the start time was based on broadcasting or meteorology, but it's a good thing it's in the afternoon.  I believe -20˚C is the lower limit for cross-country events.  From the 2019 FIS rule book (I couldn't find a more recent one quickly):

"If the temperature is below -20° C, measured at the coldest point of the course, a competition will be postponed or cancelled by the Jury. With difficult weather conditions (e.g., strong wind, high air humidity, heavy snowfall, or high temperature) the Jury may, in consultation with the Team Captains of the participating teams and the Chief of medical and rescue service responsible for the competition, postpone or cancel the competition."

I suspect the skiathalon will go tomorrow as it will probably be a bit above -15˚C and hope the winds will subside some.  

Welcome to winter at the edge of the Siberian High.