Sunday, April 11, 2021

Spring Ahead

Forecasts for the coming week look to be spring like, but are uncertain in terms of precipitation details.  The GFS forecast valid 0000 UTC 15 April (6 PM MDT Wednesday) shows a cold, closed low parked right over northern Utah.  

That would favor colder, unsettled weather, but other models have different ideas concerning the position of the low and associated precipitation features.  

Let's start with the easy stuff.  Tomorrow (Monday) will be dry and cool.  After that, the possibility for showers increases on Tuesday as the low digs southward into the Intermountain West. Wednesday may be unsettled, with the possibility of lingering showers on Thursday.  

It's difficult, however, to pinpoint details.  The 0900 UTC initialized Short Range Ensemble Forecast System forecast through 0000 UTC 15 April (6 PM MDT Wednesday) shows enormous spread with a several members producing little or no precipitation at the Salt Lake City Airport, but some others producing more than 0.4 inches.  

An additional complication for Wednesday (and Thursday) is that snow levels could be down to the benches and potentially the valley floor.  It's too soon to say if things will come together for bench accumulations.  Much is going to depend on the track of the low and the associated precipitation features.  

The bottom line is this is a spring-like pattern with the potential for precipitation.  Best to keep an eye on forecasts over the next few days as forecasts are likely to evolve.  

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