Tuesday, November 12, 2013

A Glimmer of Hope

One of the best ways to ensure a storm is to forecast dry weather, as done in the previous post (Snow(Making) in Forecast).  I came in this morning, pulled up the latest GFS, and lo-and-behold, the forecast for this weekend had changed.  Dramatically.  

Here's the GFS forecast for Saturday afternoon that I used yesterday.  We are in the wake of a dry trough passage.  


And here's the GFS forecast from this morning for Saturday afternoon.


Yup, quite a change.  Keep your fingers crossed we get something.  Anything would make me happy at this point.  
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8 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 12, 2013 at 11:14 AM

    I was wondering why you didn't mention anything about the ECMWF yesterday, because it was showing a good, cold storm for the past 48+ hours. It seems to be the much more reliable model too. Any reason you don't seem to use he EC much?

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    1. Jim SNovember 12, 2013 at 11:45 AM

      We like the EC and I typically consult it. However, I don't have access to the full model data and the runs are typically older. Those wishing to make a large donation so we can pay ECMWF for the full grids should give me a call :-).

      The 0000 UTC 11 Nov initialized deterministic EC forecast I had access to for yesterdays post did have a deeper trough, but for the 0000 UTC 17 Nov time pictured above, it was centered over Washington State rather than California. The EC ensemble initialized at that time was fairly similar to the GFS ensemble. Thus, the change is pretty substantial, even for the EC.

      Both the GFS and EC ensemble show quite a bit of spread regarding the track and intensity of this trough. Thus, I expect more surprises may be in store.

      All of this reminds me why I typically avoid extended forecasts...

      Delete
    2. AnonymousNovember 12, 2013 at 3:02 PM

      Hmmm... interesting! Thanks, as always, for the insight!

      Delete
  2. AnonymousNovember 12, 2013 at 4:09 PM

    You know? Weather forecasting involves hundred of very intelligent people, PHD's and billions of dollars worth of high end computers and software. But, in the end it always comes down to a Wild-Assed-Guess. Especially when it comes to predicting the next snowfall.

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    1. Jim SNovember 12, 2013 at 4:16 PM

      I think you have us confused with economists :-).

      Delete
  3. AnonymousNovember 12, 2013 at 4:26 PM

    Ah yes, Economists. Your are correct. As far as the two forecasts, it looks to me that they are both correct if you live in Jackpot, NV.

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  4. DavidNovember 12, 2013 at 8:14 PM

    Someone recently showed me a good site to access the EC model data including precip: www.wunderground.com/wundermap. Once you get there, zoom way out on the map and look at the panel on the right. If you figure out how to condense some of the available overlays (and close the ad in the lower corner) there is a layer with model data. Check the box, then click on the blue symbol and play with the different options and slider bars. A good way to directly compare the models. I am glad someone figured out that this exists (I think maybe Dan at MSI gets the credit), am curious to see if it is more than you guys can get otherwise.

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    1. AnonymousNovember 12, 2013 at 8:51 PM

      It worked. Genius! I have access to EC data anyway, but I like little hacks like this!

      Delete

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