Saturday, December 10, 2011

Slim Pickings to Continue

Today's worn, tired snowpack in Big Cottonwood Canyon
I've returned from the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union with the hope that perhaps a snowstorm would be in our future.  I've had a chance to look at the computer model forecasts and the bottom line is that things continue to look grim.

The synoptic four-panel loop from this morning's 1200 UTC initialized NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows that the high-amplitude ridge presently over Utah will weaken, but split flow will persist and there is little hope of a direct hit from a major storm system during the next 7 days.

Perhaps we'll see a few flakes on Tuesday as we're brushed by systems to the north and south, and there is the possibility that the upper-level trough that is forecast to move into the western United States on Thursday decides to progress into Utah instead of digging into southern California.  While that can't be ruled out, our medium-range forecast models are all going for the southern California option.

I don't know what you people have done to bring this drought upon us, but start appeasing the snow gods now.

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