Wasatch Weather Weenies

The National Weather Service reports this afternoon that we've hit 100ºF this afternoon, marking the sixth straight day with temperatures reaching 100 or greater. If you are keeping score at home, the highs are 102, 105, 102, 103, 104 and at least 100 today.  Three of those tied or broke record highs for the day. I thought about backpacking this weekend, but the temperatures were simply too high, even in the Uintas.  I did hike up Snowbird today, and it was probably the most uncomfortable trek to the tram that I can remember.  It was not only hot, but there was also little wind, even on the ridge. The snowpack has taken a beating the past couple of weeks.  For as much snow as there was in the Wasatch in late May, there's really not much left. June through August is supposed to be hot, but this is not normal.  Over the past three years the period from 1 June through 8 July has been exceptionally warm at the Salt Lake City International Airport, rating ...

With three days of 100+ in the bag, including a 105, it's no surprise that the first 6 days of July have been blistering and rate as the warmest first 6 days of July on record, with an average temperature of 85.4ºF. Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers This is a family blog, so I won't say it, but you can utter or scream your favorite expletive here. There's really no relief in site.  The NWS calls for triple digit high temperatures at the airport through Sunday.  Monday they drop the high to 97, but lets see if that pans out and really, that's still above average. The overall pattern over the next 10 days ain't great.  There's always the hope of a summertime thunderstorm, and a weak trough is expected to approach on Monday, but that's about it.  The 180 hour GEFS forecasts below scare the hell out of me, with most going for a high amplitude ridge that is configured in a way that we'll see blistering conditions right through the end of the mon...

Last night's fireworks displays caused some notable declines in air quality around the region.  At Neil Armstrong Academy in West Valley City there there was a rapid rise in PM2.5 concentrations just prior to 10 PM, coinciding with increases in individual and public fireworks displays, reaching a brief peak at a remarkably high 180 ug/m3. Source: MesoWest Elevated levels above about 40 ug/m3 persisted through about 3 AM, after which they declined to much lower levels. Sith mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures kicking photochemistry into overdrive, ozone concentrations over the past five afternoon at Hawthorne Elementary have peaked at levels considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. Source: DAQ Today and the next three days are expected to be no different. Source: DAQ Unlike high wintertime PM2.5, which is typically confined to the Salt Lake Valley, the nearby Wasatch Mountains are probably no safe haven from the high ozone as they are also enveloped in the ...

I love the four seasons, but July in Salt Lake City is a four letter word.  There are probably worst places to spend July, such as central Florida or southern Arizona, but in my view, as a resident of northern Utah, July is my least favorite month. And, with June in the rear view, the forecasts show that the first half of July is clearly is out to get us this year.  We are looking down the gun barrel of a period characterized by little synoptic variability and just the hope of perhaps a sneak of moisture from time to time to give us a shower or thunderstorm.  To show the lack of variability, below are the 60, 120, and 180 hour forecasts from the GFS showing a ridge centered over the four corners, a ridge centered over the four corners, and a ridge centered over the four corners, respectively.  It's a forecast that is redundantly redundant. Nor surprisingly, the time-height section for 0-180 hours shows a freezing level that shows little variability, ris...

With the Fourth of July next Tuesday, we have a holiday weekend on tap.  My forecast for the weekend can be summarized in one word.  Combustible. The Brian Head fire gets everyone's attention, but both lightning- and human-sparked fires have been quick to flare up across the state.  Despite a good snow season, fire danger is rated as moderate to high across northern Utah and very high to extreme across southern Utah. Source: USFS Wild Fire Assessment System Precipitation has been scant across the state for several weeks, with 50% or less of average falling across much of the state over the past 60 days. Source: NOAA/NWS The past 60 days have also been unusually warm.  For example, the period from 29 April through 29 June is the 2nd warmest on record at the Salt Lake City International Airport (ignore the first year in the graph below as it contains several missing days). Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers This has led to tinderbox condition...

GOES-16, previously called GOES-R, is a remarkable next-generation satellite that was launched in November.  Although not "official" yet, it has been providing remarkable imagery for several months. GOES is short for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite.  Geostationary means that the satellite is in an orbit in which it remains over the same point on the equator, allowing it to repeatedly sample roughly one half of the Earth at all times.  GOES-16 offers several major advances over previous US geostationary satellites including higher spatial resolution (0.5 km for the 0.64 um visible channel, 1 km for other visible channels, and 2 km for longer wavelength channels), which equates to approximately four times as many pixels, more frequent images (every 5 minutes over the continental US and as often as 30-60 seconds over selected regions), and 16 spectral "bands."  Previous GOES satellites sampled only 5 spectral bands.  The increased number of bands...

An addendum has been added to the end of this post concerning uncertainty about the source of the smoke or dust over the Salt Lake Valley this morning.   A smoky sunrise in the Avenues A weak trough passage last night has brought smoke into the Salt Lake Valley, along with a little lake stink. As far as troughs go, this one was about as weak as it gets and barely put a dent in the near-surface flow.  The trough is, however, more easily seen in upper air (700mb, about crest level) analyses, with the pronounced wind shift moving across the Salt Lake Valley early this morning. Thus, the smoke is not from the Brian Head fire, but more likely originates from one of the large incidents to our west and northwest over Nevada and Idaho. Source: https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/ Speaking of the Brian Head fire, lets take a few moments to talk a little bit about the meteorology leading up to the event, motivated in part by comments concerning yesterday's post. Sn...