Eastern Utah Is So Weird!

As noted by David, who commented on the previous post, the valleys and lowlands of eastern Utah are just plain weird climatologically.

If one classifies the precipitation climate over the southwest U.S., there are four major regimes.  The first (row a in the image below), covering most of California, northern Nevada, and the upper elevations of northern Utah and western Colorado, features a pronounced winter maximum.  The second (row b), covering much of Arizona and portions of southern Utah, New Mexico, and southwest Colorado, features a pronounced maximum during the monsoon.  The third (row c), covering the plains of eastern Colorado and New Mexico, is somewhat related and has a maximum in the summer with less precipitation in the winter.  Finally, there is a fourth regime (row d) in the lower elevations of portions of Nevada, Utah, and western Colorado where precipitation peaks in the spring.  This includes the Salt Lake Valley.

Source: Steenburgh et al. (2013)

If you look carefully at those plots, however, you can find a region that is not included and that is the valleys and lowlands of eastern Utah, including places like Vernal and Moab.  The climate there has a maximum occurring in October.

Why October?  I can speculate, but it really deserves some investigation.  As suggested by David, there could be a magic point as the monsoon tails off and we begin to see mid-latitude storm systems coming in that enables more moisture and precipitation to move into this area.  It might also be that this area got pounded by a small number of larger storms during the past few decades, skewing the stats for October (I haven't checked to evaluate the statistical significance of the October maximum).

In any event, eastern Utah has always been a little weird and even Mother Nature likes it that way.

Stuck Between Two Regimes

Precipitation over the western United States over the next week is strongly dominated by two regimes.  The first is associated with the deep upper-level trough moving across the southwest U.S. over the next few days that will result in frequent shower and thunderstorm activity.  The second develops later this week as moist southwesterly flow penetrates into the Pacific Northwest.  

The mean precipitation produced over the next 7 days by the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) shows these two regimes quite nicely with the largest accumulations over the Southwest and the Northwest.    

NAEFS mean precipitation 0000 UTC 5 October – 0000 UTC 12 October 2015

Northern Utah is just on the fringe of the more monsoonal regime, but misses out on the precipitation over the Northwest.  Thus, our best chance for precipitation in northern Utah is through tomorrow evening as we are brushed by the upper-level trough.  

Because we're stuck between the two regimes, we won't be seeing skiable snow for at least another week.  The NAEFS forecast plume below is for Alta and shows the precipitation through tomorrow afternoon, after which it's pretty much flatlined (i.e., dry).  It's cold enough that the higher elevations may see a dusting or light coat if there's a strong shower, but that's about it.  

No worries.  Best if it holds off for a bit longer.  

The Mount Olympus Wilderness

It doesn't matter how long you live in Utah.  You will have days where you are just thankful for the beauty and access of the Wasatch Range.

The Mount Olympus Wilderness is a truly remarkable place.  It's right there.  It starts right on the edge of the east bench and is a remarkably wild and undeveloped place.  The vegetation is thick on north aspects and I saw plenty of deer, grouse, and woodpeckers today.

The Desolation Trail is aptly named.  Plenty of people take it the first couple of miles, but once you climb a couple thousand vertical feet, you'll find few people.

There's still nice color out there, particularly on this side of the range.  I was in Park City last weekend and was shocked at how grey everything was.  Many of the aspens on the Wasatch Back dropped their leaves early this year.  I've heard media reports that a fungus is responsible.  Apparently it's a one-and-done thing and not a long term detriment to tree health.  Let's hope so.

Gobblers Knob showed a bit of fall plumage today.  There's still some aspens that haven't gone over completely yet.  Maybe there will be some color remaining next weekend.

I wonder how many wilderness areas in the United States are so close to a metropolitan area of this size.  We are so fortunate.

The Broads Fork Twin got a nice dusting late yesterday.  It won't be long now.

Fundraiser for Brian

I couldn't find this with a Google search when preparing the previous post about Brian McKenna, but if you are interested in donating to help with his medical expenses, there is a fundraiser at gofundme that you can access here.

A Remarkable Story of Courage and Inspiration

There's plenty to talk about meteorologically today from coast to coast, but instead I want to share a remarkable story of courage and inspiration.

Brian McKenna is a long-time follower of this blog.  We've shared a number of e-mail exchanges and I had the great opportunity to meet him briefly at the 2014 Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop.

Via social media, I saw some reports that Brian was in an accident over the summer.  I didn't hear much more than that and I foolishly assumed that it was perhaps not all that significant.

Yesterday I learned that Brian's accident was instead quite serious.  He had been paralyzed in a mountain biking crash.  His story, which speaks strongly to the quality of his character, was covered yesterday by the Ellen Degeneres Show and can be viewed in the two clips below.

Brian – my thoughts are with you.  Continue to keep an eye on the weather and those e-mails coming.

Musings on Early Season Snow and Skiing

Twitter feed of Hannah Barkey and Matt Chirico getting after it in mid September.  Professor Powder confesses that he went swimming, biking, or hiking instead.

October is here.  Although skiing is theoretically possible in August or September (see above), October is the first month in which the odds of a significant storm or storms tick up significantly.  I could provide a detailed analysis of the likelihood of various storm sizes and depths during the month, but instead I'll rely on the entirely unverifiable but highly relevant ski journal that a friend has kept since the mid 1970s, which suggest about a 1 in 3 chance of legitimate (in contrast to that above) skiing in the Wasatch in October.  

My personal excitement level is climbing.  My back has improved quite dramatically this summer and, although still not right, is better than it has been in 3 years.  Then, I picked up a pair of Black Diamond Carbon Converts, my first new boards in several years and a major departure from the skinny sticks I usually tour on.  They won't see the light of day the first storm, as I'll wait for the snowpack to build some, but perhaps this old dog will learn some new tricks this winter.  

That being said, I'm not praying for snow yet.  I wait until late October for that.  Early or mid October storms provide a good jolt of adrenalin and excitement, but are almost always followed by a dry period (a.k.a., powder interuptus) during which the south aspects bake and the north aspects turn to facets.  Better for the snow to hold off and then to have several storms in succession in late October or perhaps better yet, early November (see Patience Young Jedi Knight). 

Everyone has been asking me how much it is going to snow this winter, but that's the wrong question.  What they should be asking is how much will it snow in late October and November.  If you want a great ski season, especially for ski touring, it's better for the snow to come early than late.  Not only do you build up a depth-hoar-free snowpack, but you can take advantage of the low-angle sun, which allows powder to linger for long stretches on a wide range of aspects.  Root for a 500 inch year in which 100 inches or more falls in late October and November instead of a 600 inch year in which 30 inches falls in late October and November. 

So, don't burn your skis yet.  Wait a few weeks and then hope the spigot turns on.