More Records Will Fall

With five days to go (including today), it looks like this June will go down as the hottest on record in Salt Lake City.  

The average temperature for the month currently sits at 75.4ºF behind only 1988 (75.7ºF) and tied with 1918 (75.4ºF), with the latter observation likely collected in town rather than at the airport. 

Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers

In all likelihood we will break the record by a sizable margin.  The NWS forecast for Salt Lake shows that the next few days will be the hottest for the summer so far.  In case you are wondering, the all-time record high temperature for June at the Salt Lake Airport is 105ºF set on June 28 and 29, 2013. 

Source: NWS

The heat is on.  Ick. 

Great Graphic: What's Caused Recent Warming

Source: Bloomberg

Eric Roston and Blacki Migliozzi of Bloomberg have put together a great info graphic based on research from NASA/GISS illustrating the various human and natural drivers of climate change and their influence on warming since the late 1880s.  One of the great myths concerning climate research is that we only focus on carbon dioxide.  Nothing could be further from the truth as considerable effort has gone into understanding and quantifying the role of various natural and anthropogenic factors and their influence on climate change.  Their graphic, available here, allows you to examine each of these factors, as well as their combined influence.

100 Denied

In our post on Friday (When Will We Hit 100?), we discussed the possibility of hitting 100 yesterday (Sunday), but also that it was going to be close due to an approaching surface trough that was forecast to push across northern Utah.  Specifically, we said that "if the trough is a bit slower than currently progged, then a high of 99–102 seems likely.  Knock that down a couple of degrees if it's a bit faster."

The latter verified and indeed yesterday's high only reached 96ºF.  The time series below shows this well.  Through about 1 PM yesterday the flow war from the south with peak gusts of just over 30 mph.  Then the trough went rhgouth and the wind shifted to NW-N.  Note how the temperatures flattened out and decreased slightly following the frontal passage, resulting in a maximum temperature at about 1 PM.  In contrast, the previous day, which didn't have such an airmass change, saw temperatures rise to a maximum at about 5 PM.

I'm sure you feel cheated out of your 100.

Green Is Good

While up in the hills the past couple of weeks, I've been blow away by how green and lush it is.  I did short hike in Albion Basin this morning and it's really lush up there.  Here are a few photos.

Mt. Superior is nearly snow free.  In a big year, you can ski it in mid June.

Green Greeley.  Late summer turns in gunsight will be very difficult this year.

Devil's Castle looms white over green meadows.

Looking down the remarkably green slopes of Albion Basin.  Not many wildflowers yet, but there are a few blue ones out there.

And now for something completely different, pink (a.k.a. watermelon) snow.  The color is caused by a snow algea, chlamydomonas nivalis.  

With the Albion Basin road closed, it's far less crowded up there than it is in July and August and well worth a trip. 

When Will We Hit 100?

Yesterday's high at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 98ºF.  The only temperature that I hate more than 98 is 99ºF.  If we must be stuck with US units and it is going to be that hot, it should hit 100.  Will we finally get there in the days ahead?

It won't be today.  We've had a weak trough passage and the air behind it is a smidge cooler than yesterday.

Through the weekend, our best chance may be Sunday, but it's going to be close.  There is a weak trough approaching from the west and if it comes in late in the day or in the evening so that we're in the warm southerlies, we'll make a run at 100.  The NAM and GFS forecast 700-mb temperatures for 6 PM Sunday are 16.8ºC and 16.5ºC, respectively, which is a bit higher than it was yesterday afternoon.  Both models put the trough over northern Utah (GFS) below at that time.

It's gonna be close.  If the trough is a bit slower than currently progged, then a high of 99–102 seems likely.  Knock that down a couple of degrees if it's a bit faster.

In case you are wondering, the extended range forecasts show nothing but hot and dry for the next week and beyond.  Steel yourself for full bore nuclear summer.  It's against my better judgement to icon-based extended forecasts (see Ten-Day Icon Based Forecasts Are Bogus), but The Weather Channel forecast for Salt Lake City pretty much tells the tale.

Source: The Weather Channel

Temperature Records Are Falling

The National Centers for Environmental Information has released the latest climate numbers for May and they are smoking hot.  In fact, last month represents the hottest May in the instrumented record.

Source: NCEI

And the Northern Hemisphere spring (March–May) was also the warmest on record.

Source: NCEI

And globally, January–May was the warmest on record.

Source: NCEI

And also globally, June–May was the warmest on record.

Source: NCEI

In 1979, the National Academy of Sciences issued a report entitled Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment.  Some snippets from the executive summary seem appropriate today.

"For more than a century, we have been aware that changes in the composition of the atmosphere could affect its ability to trap the sun's energy for our benefit. We now have incontrovertible evidence that the atmosphere is indeed changing and that we ourselves contribute to that change. Atmsopheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are steadily increasing, and these changes are linked with man's use of fossil fuels and exploitation of land. Since carbon dioxide plays a significant role in the heat budget of the atmosphere, it is reasonable to suppose that continued increases would affect climate."

"These concerns have prompted a number of investigations of the implications of increasing carbon dioxide.  Their consensus has been that increasing carbon dioxide will lead to a warmer earth with a different distribution of climatic regimes."

"If carbon dioxide continues to increase, the study group finds no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible."

"However, the study group points out that the ocean, the great and ponderous flywheel of the global climate system, may be expected to slow the course of observable climate change. A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late."