You Were Warned

Mind boggling temperatures from the western United States currently.  Even watching from a distance here in Austria, they blow me away. 

As I write this, it is Friday morning in Austria and some of the numbers for Thursday in the US are not in yet.  Thus I'm going to use observations from Wednesday to illustrate the scale and intensity of this event before boring into what data I have access to from Thursday.  

Below are the rankings for high temperatures on Wednesday relative to prior March 18ths.  Wide spread records for the date across the southwest US but even all the way up into Montana (asterisks indicate a tie for the highest temperature of the date).  It appears every western state had at least one station that tied or set a record temperature for the date.  Washington was the "coolest" western state, but even there, Chelan tied their record high.   

Source: https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php

Departures from average were impressively high.  Many sites were more than 20°F above average, and this is likely the 1991-2020 average so departure relative to the now old and obsolete 20th century average would be even bigger.  Some sites were at or above 25°F above average.  I couldn't find a +30, but maybe it's in there somewhere.    

Source: https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php

Wednesday's highest temperature was 108°F at a location near North Shore, CA, which is not on the Pacific Ocean but instead the Salton Sea.  Yesterday (Thursday), Palm Springs hit 107, Thermal 108, and Indio 108.  I believe those 108s are all time monthly maximum temperature records for March and possibly all time for the entire US.  Adding to the misery a bit further east is 106 in Yuma and 105 in Phoenix.  

Records in the Palm Springs Area go back to 1922.  In 1938 they hit 100 in March for the first time.  In 1966 104.  In 1988 103. And now this year 106 (Wednesday) and 107 (Thursday).  In Thermal, records go back to 1951.  They hit 102 in 1966 and 1988 and now 107.  

Meanwhile in Salt Lake City, yesterdays 79 was a record for the date but not the month.  The monthly record is still 80, set on 31 March 2012.  Don't worry.  We'll likely set a new record on Friday and/or Saturday.  

Utah ski areas are suffering.  Eagle Point and Cherry Peak are closed.  Snowbasin's last day is Sunday.  That's a major Utah ski resort, ranked #1 in the US by some surveys and rankings, with a substantive snowmaking system, packing it in on March 22nd.  I looked at the webcam from the base of Wildcat yesterday and I simply could not believe it. It doesn't even seem possible.  

https://www.snowbasin.com/the-mountain/web-cams/

My heart goes out to the resort, which moved heaven and Earth for us this winter for our field campaign.  Despite a slow start to the season, we actually got some great data and will learn a lot, but never in my wildest dreams did I expect to see such a sparse natural snowpack in mid March.  

Here are a few SNOTEL observations based on data from Wednesday, the most recent data that I have available as I write this. There is no snow at Ben Lomond Trail. Median for March 18 is 17.6".  The snowpack at Ben Lomond Peak (7690 ft) appears to be ripe (i.e., it has warmed through depth to 0ºC) and has declined 3.3 inches from its peak and sits just above it's all time low for the date.  Snowbird is not at an all-time low, but it also appears to have declined some from its peak, although that site is a little flaky so I'm not going to fully endorse that as reality (maybe someone can comment).  That said, all other SNOTEL sites in the central Wasatch have seen declines in total snowpack water equivalent in the past few days.  Not necessarily a lot, but some.  

My view of these events is that they are not the new normal, but they are the new extreme, at least for now.  We should expect natural climate variability to still give our winters and snowpacks ups and downs in the coming years, including some good or even great snow years (as we just had in 2022/23).  But, we are seeing an emerging trend to warmer conditions, meaning more frequent, more intense, and longer duration heat waves, more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, more mid-winter snowmelt events, etc.  These trends, caused by human-caused global warming, will have the biggest impact on snowfall and snowpack in the lower elevations, as we have seen this season, but will also bring change to the upper elevations.  

The reality is that you were warned.  Some of you took it seriously.  Others have called it a hoax and even today are working to dismantle the outstanding US climate-science enterprise, such as breaking up world-class research institutes like the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  Still others are pushing fossil fuels and delaying a transition to a lower-carbon world.  

Due to the slow response of the climate system and socio-economic change, we are already committed to more warming in the next 20-30 years (maybe longer).  Will the powers that be continue to resist change and pursue a high carbon, fossil fueled future?  Good luck with that.  

My "Run of Fame"

Call it a guilty pleasure given the industrial-scale nature of the resort development, but I absolutely love skiing from valley to valley and village to village in the Arlberg region of western Austria where lift-served skiing extends from St. Anton to the south to Warth to the north, a distance of 16 km as the crow flies and much farther as the winter-sports enthusiast skis. 

I've skied the Arlberg on several days over the years, but yesterday, for the first time, did the full trip from St. Anton to Warth and back.  It was a good day for it with mainly clear skies, a good hard freeze allowing the groomers to hold up well except on south aspects, no lift lines, and relatively uncrowded slopes (by Arlberg standards).  I had enough time to not only get to Warth and back, but also to do some side trips to other lifts and villages.

I caught the first Galzigbahn tram at 8:30 and followed the following village-by-village route: St. Anton -> Rauz (not really a village but a place) -> Zurs -> Zug -> Lech (really above Lech) -> Warth -> Lech -> Zurs -> Rauz -> Stuben -> Rauz -> St. Christoph -> St. Anton.

It was one of the biggest days of skiing I've ever had.  When I got back to St. Anton, I had covered in total about 97 km, including lift distances.  I ended up skiing a bit more to get that over 100 km.  In the end Strava suggested a total distance of 103.8 km, total skiing distance of 62.4 km, and total vertical of 12,003 meters.  

Strava has its accuracy limitations, but those number sound good to me so I'm sticking with them.  

There is actually a ski route in the Arlberg known as the Run of Fame that extends from just south of St. Anton to Warth.  What I did was a bit different than that so I'll call it "My Run of Fame."  The actual Run of Fame is 85 km long with 18,000 vertical meters of skiing.  Based on my experience yesterday, one would probably need no lift lines, no breaks, and no turns to accomplish that.  I won't be giving it a try.  

I didn't waste time taking pictures until I got to the top of the Trittkopf II Bahn above Zurs.  I wanted to be at the "tip of the spear" of skiers leaving St. Anton as they can really clog up the liftlines.  However, it was when I got here that I realized it was not going to be a busy day and I could take some photos.

Descending to Zurs. 

One of highlights of the Arlberg, if it is not crowded (and this is rare), is skiing from the top of the Madlochbahn above Zurs to the village of Zug.  There are no lifts near this route so if there aren't many skiers around (a rarity), it has a bit of a quiet feel.  About half way down you can look northeastward down the upper Lechtal to the village of Lech. 

Once above Zug, there's great views of the ski terrain above Lech.  The Steinmahder lift services the attractive but south facing terrain in the photo below.  I did a side excursion to check it out.  

I think did some more skiing and road a bunch of lifts to get to Warth.  

Warth is in the wet northern rim of the Alps and is considered one of the snowier ski areas in Europe.  It also has a predominantly northern aspect.  It felt a bit more like winter here.

At this point I'd been skiing non-stop for three hours, so I stopped for some skiwasser and strudel mit vanillasauce at a mountain hut.  

I've had better, but the calories were appreciated.  

Getting from Lech to Warth or Warth to Lech involves taking a gondola that traverses some flat and convoluted terrain between the two resorts.  The photo below is taken from the top of the lifts above Warth looking back toward the ski terrain above Lech.  I've indicated the gondola with a line labeled "Lech-Warth."  It actually turns to a chondola with interspersed detachable chairs for the last bit of the route (after the bend).  One can also see the upper part of the ski area above Lech, the route from the Madlochbahn to Zug (approximate with Zug blocked by terrain), the lift-served terrain above Zurs, and the route of the Rufikopfbahn cable cars from Lech to the top of the Rufikopf from where one can ski back to Zurs.  

On the gondola ride back to Lech, I was on with a group speaking an unknown language.  The lift stopped for a long time.  At some point someone from the group asked me where I was from in English.  I said Utah.  They then responded "Ah, Alta." Lol.  They were from Sweden, where apparently there is a chapter of Altaholics Anonymous.  We had a good chat.  

After some more skiing I descended into Lech, pictured below.  The valley at center right goes to Zurs.  The Rufikopfbahns ascend the steep avalanche fence covered slope above Lech and then more open terrain to the top of the Rufikopf.  Look closely for the towers.  

From the top of the Rufikopf you ski some of the flattest terrain on the face of the Earth, but you don't care because the scenery is spectacular.   The groomed tracks in the center of the photo are for snow hikers, but the ski trail on the far left is also low angle.  

I did more skiing and rode more lifts.  Eventually I got to Stuben.  This village is less visited and I had long runs to myself there,.  Below is the view from the summit lift looking back toward Zurs, which is in the valley near the center of the photo.  

I then decided to get back to St. Anton to go home, but before doing that I thought I would ski down to St. Christoph so that I visited all of the villages in the Arlberg.  St. Christoph also has sentimental appeal because I stayed here with others from the Salt Lake Olympic Organizing Committee during the 2001 Alpine World Championships.  I'd love to stay there again, but its is well outside of my price range.  

And finally, the descent to St. Anton.  

Another neat thing about this day is that I took the train from Innsbruck to St. Anton.  It's about an hour and fifteen minutes each way and it puts you within about a 5 minute walk of the lifts in St. Anton.  So, from my apartment in Innsbruck to Warth without a personal vehicle.  Very nice.  

Mid-Slope Cumulus

The deep valleys of the Alps are great places to learn mountain meteorology. The have somewhat regular thermally forced valley and slope flows when the large-scale flow is weak and fascinating terrain-forced flows when the large-scale flow is strong.  Clouds are frequently present and are useful for understanding local flow patterns.

Saturday night bought valley rain and mountain snow to western Austria.  Sunday morning I went for a hike above our apartment to a mountain hut.  On the return, I noticed shallow mid-slope cumulus clouds on the south side of the valley, beneath a more layered stratiform cloud that was hovering at higher elevations close to ridgeline.  

The local time was about 1200 so I suspect that surface heating was leading to upslope flow that generated those shallow clouds.  In the wake of the storm, the airmass over the valley was relatively moist and reached saturation with a little ascent to generate the clouds.  Given their shallow nature, the cumulus clouds suggest that the low-level upslope flow was not penetrating all the way to the ridgeline, but was confined to the lower valley atmosphere. 

That's the hypothesis anyway, although it's hard to evaluate with observed data in this case.  

Astounding Forecasts for March

The models are putting out some remarkable height and temperature forecasts for Utah and the southwest US for March.  I'm even a little late getting to the party given that the NWS issued a statement at 2 PM MDT on March 12th for potentially record-breaking temperatures by the middle of next week. 

The synoptic setup is the development of a high-amplitude upper-level ridge over the southwest.  As an example, below is the ECMWF HRES foreacast valid 0000 UTC 20 March (6 PM MDT Thursday) with 500-mb heights above 5940 meters over Arizona and 700-mb temperatures of 10°C over Salt Lake City. 

For the southwest, these are exceptionally high 700-mb temperatures.  The highest March 700-mb temperature every recorded in an upper-air sounding over northern Utah is 8.0°C.  We may be above that for a few days later next week and into the weekend.  The 700-mb temperatures over southern Utah and the desert southwest are also at record levels.  

The seasonal snowpack in the southwest is already on life support.  As of March 12, watersheds in southern Utah, southern Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico were at or below 50% of median snowpack for the date.  Along the Mogollon Rim, they were below 10%.  

For northern Utah, another perspective is provided by the wet-bulb 0.5°C plumes for Alta-Collins in the lower left of the plot below.  Dramatic warming occurs early next week and in most of the ensemble members this level is above the elevation of the Alta-Collins site (9600 feet) for several days thereafter.  

I saw some online claims of a "miracle March" in Utah because we got some snow to start the month. In reality, there was no miracle.  We got some snow, but not an unusual amount for what we used to call "winter" and now we are going to see the heat big time with a late March sun.  Its not May, but the sun angle is high enough now to do significant damage.  

The mountain snowpack, spring runoff, and Great Salt Lake do not care about hope or wishful thinking.  

Skiing Axamer Lizum

There are a number of "small" ski areas in the Innsbruck area including Glungezer, Patscherkofel, Berger Alm, Mieders, Schlick 2000, Mutterer Alm, Oberpfuss, and Axamer Lizum.  I put small in quotes because many of these areas may have a small number of lifts and trails, but they also have substantial vertical drops, exceeding 1000 meters (3300 feet) in some cases.  

The most popular with the locals is probably Axamer Lizum, which "only" has a vertical drop of about 760 meters/2500 feet, but has a good variety of pistes and off piste terrain.  It is located in a beautiful valley just to the southwest of Innsbruck, about a 30 minute drive or 40-45 minute bus ride from town.  We skied it today enjoying the sunshine and spring conditions.

It is my understanding that lizum is a Tyrolean word for the end of a valley or high alpine pasture surrounded by a high alpine amphitheater.  I'm not sure if that is an accurate translation, but it is an apt description of the valley in which Axamer Lizum sits, which ends at the base of the spectacular Kalkkögle Alps.  

The resort mainly faces east or east-northeast and gets the morning sun.  Morning laps on fresh corduroy with views of Innsbruck and the Inn Valley are a great way to start the day.  

The summit of Axamer Lizum is on a peak called Hoadl.  As is the case with most peaks in this part of the Alps, there is a summit cross, in this case the German translates loosely to "For God and Homeland." That said, heimat as I understand it does not translate well to English given it's deep cultural meaning and sense of belonging to the area.  One can certainly see why people love it here.  

West of Axamer Lizum one can look into the Senderstal or Senders Valley.  I'd like to send a few lines in that valley. 

Actually, I have ski toured to a couple of the 3000 meter summits far in the distance.  Good memories.  

Speaking of lines, the Kalkkögle Alps are not only beautiful but are a veritable "Chuting Gallery" to steal the phrase from Andrew McClean.  

Backing out a bit for a broader perspective.  

With no significant lift lines, the vertical added up quick and I was on a bus back to town just after 12.  It was a perfect spring morning.  

End of German Glacier Skiing

Lift-served glacier skiing in Germany will come to an end this year when the Schneefernerkopf lift on the Zugspitze, Germany's highest peak and on the border with Austria, is dismantled.

Source: t-online. 

Glaciers across the Alps are shrinking and those on the Zugspitze are in rapid decline. The Shcneefernerkopf lift was on the Northern Schneeferner glacier (ferner is a word used for glacier in western Austria and southern Germany).  I took the photo below of the T-bar and glacier in August 2015 and even then it was suffering with essentially no seasonal snow coverage.

More information concerning the Northern Schneeferner and the rapidly declining remants of Germany's other three glaciers is available at https://zugspitze.de/glacier. 

Parties and Piste

I see that snow has recently returned to the Wasatch.  Hopefully you are getting some freshies in for me.

Here in Tyrol, a monster block remains in firm control, with some Saharan dust sprinkled in for good measure.  

Saturday I didn't ski, but I did have time for a quick tram ride up the Nordkettenbahn above Innsbruck.  There's a terrain park up there, which on Saturday was supplemented with a DJ, resulting in a crowd of youngsters more interested in dancing than skiing.  

The Saharan dust provided a bit of mood lighting.  I didn't stay long. 

Today we skied again at Stubai Glacier, which due to its high elevation is a reasonable option for escaping the mild spring conditions and thin snowpack found elsewhere.  You can find what appear to be some good turns in the photo below, but it hasn't snowed here in a long time so the tracks descending from left in the picture below are like dinosaur footprints preserved in sedimentary rocks – evidence of a former geological era in the Earth's lifetime.  

That said, the groomers at Stubai are firm but carvable and we are having fun.  At this point, my transformation to Professor Piste is complete.  

Saharan Dust

I'm getting settled in here in Innsbruck.  It's been a beautiful week here with temperatures reaching as high as 20°C (68°F) in town yesterday.  It's not great for the skiing, but if you can't have snow, its the next best thing.

Utahn's are well aquatinted with dust and so are people in the Alps as there is a very big source to the south, namely the Sahara Desert.  

Yesterday skies were clear of clouds and visibility was good.  A look at the weather camera that looks south toward the Wipp Valley and the Brenner Pass to Italy shows

Source: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/innsbruck

Late yesterday, as forecast, the dust began to move in.  Today the visibility is much worse, although it appears the paragliders aren't too concerned (dust of this concentration does not have that large of an impact on solar radiation and surface heating. 

Source: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/innsbruck

Geosphere, which provides weather services for Austria, has a very nice dust modeling system and it nicely illustrates the coverage of dust, which is even thicker in portions of the French and Swiss Alps.  

Source: https://portale.geosphere.at/hpEUgw/?p=HP_DUSTLOAD_EU&gl=EN

European operational numerical weather prediction is well ahead of the US now.  The Swiss, for example, are running an 11-member ensemble at 1-km grid spacing out to 30 hours 8 times a day and a 21 member ensemble at 2.1-km grid spacing out to 120 hours 4 times a day.  I can access an experimental forecast from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service or DWR) with 500-m grid spacing through the University here.  Not sure yet if I can share, but it did a spectacular job with the winds yesterday.  These forecasts all use the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model that was developed by DWR and the Max Plank Institute and is now used by several European countries and other countries outside of Europe including in South American, Africa, and Asia. 

Very impressive.

Escape from Utah

In an effort to improve the snowfall situation in the Wasatch Range, I have left Utah for the rest of the cool season.  

I'm serving as a guest professor at the University of Innsbruck for their so-called summer semester, which actually runs from March to June.  We arrived here on Wednesday.  It's been mild and sunny here with high temperatures above 10°C (no °F here) in Innsbruck each day.  Today I skied with some friends at Stubai Glacier, which reaches over 3000 meters elevation, to escape the heat.  It was a spectacular day.  

Like Utah, Austria has had a largely crap snow season and the current warm spell isn't helping.  The snowpack on south aspects is pretty much non-existent below 1500 meters and in some areas much higher than that.  The snowpack is meager where it exists, even at the highest elevations.  Glacier-mounted lift towers today were on large domes of ice.  These are usually covered with white blankets (I'm not sure why they are missing currently) to reduce melt.   I was wondering if their height at least partially reflects the lack of seasonal snowfall at upper elevations.  

I'm teaching graduate course on cool-season precipitation processes and prediction starting on Monday and helping with a weather briefing course which enables me to learn more about Alpine and European meteorology.  

Hoping to provide updates from time to time and that in my absence the "Steenburgh Effect" proves productive for Wasatch powder skiing. 

Warm, Wet, and Juicy

It felt a good deal like spring yesterday with the sun now higher in the sky compared to its winter solstice minimum and mild temperatures from the valleys to the mountains.  Yesterday's high of 55 at the Salt Lake City airport was not exceptional, but combined with the brilliant sunshine, it was a beautiful day to be outside.  

We have one storm on tap for the coming week and it's looking like a warm, wet, and juicy one.  It is associated with an inland penetrating atmospheric river.  The ECMWF HRES forecast valid 0000 UTC 25 February (5 PM MST Tuesday) shows the atmospheric river (bottom right panel) over the Bay Area curving clockwise through northern Nevada and Utah.  Integrated vapor transport (IVT) values in our area are > 250 kg/m/s, which puts is in the low end of atmospheric river categories, although that's a fairly high value for the western interior.  

It's a relatively slowly evolving pattern. As can be seen above, the ECMWF puts our mountains in precip Tuesday afternoon and that continues overnight.  The forecast valid 1200 UTC 25 February (5 AM MST Wednesday) shows atmospheric river conditions persisting in mild westerly flow. 

Atmospheric rivers in northern Utah can be fickle.  Some are heavy precipitation producers.  Others do little.  This one does have something going for it and that's large-scale confluent flow, meaning that there are two air streams merging together over northern Utah, one with a more northern origin and the other with a more southern origin.  This often creates and environment of large-scale lift that helps to generate a larger-scale cloud and precipitation shield to get precipitation going.  

Unfortunately, this storms has something that we don't want and that's warmth.  HRES forecast 700-mb temperatures over the central Wasatch are around -1°C Tuesday afternoon through about 5 AM Wednesday, afterwhich they decrease slowly.  That's a recipe for high snow levels and low-to-mid elevation rain.  Some models are warmer than that.  The 12Z HRRR for example has a temperature of about +1°C at 700 mb at 0500 UTC 25 Feb (10 PM MST Tuesday).  That would mean rain above the base of Alta, possibly to mid mountain. 

Indeed the HRRR-derived Little Cottonwood forecast is really pumping up the warmth.  It has the wet-bulb zero above 9600 feet, roughly mid-mountain at Alta, from 2 PM MST Tuesday to 2 AM Wednesday.  The snow level is usually several hundred feet below that, but I would not be surprised if it briefly got to 9600 feet or higher Tuesday night if this forecast verifies.  

The 12Z HRRR is one of the warmer models, but even the 06Z RRFS ensemble has some members pushing the wet-bulb zero to 10000 feet or higher Tuesday night (bottom left panel).  Water equivalents in that ensemble vary from 1 to 2.25" for Alta-Collins, but one member has only 3" of snow, which tells you that at least one member producing rain or mixed rain-and snow at Alta-Collins.

So expect a wet, warm, and juicy storm to develope Tuesday afternoon and persist into Wednesday, although temperatures and snow levels will slowly decrease on Wednesday.  Snow levels could be quite high Tuesday night, probably getting above the base of Alta and maybe getting to 9600 feet or even high if the warmer model forecasts verify.  Hopefully the cooler forecasts will verify, but even those are fairly mild.  

From the Olympic News Feed

When I was growing up and cross-country skiing in upstate New York, Bill Koch was a legendary figure as the only US male (and at the time only US skier ever) to win an Olympic medal in Nordic Skiing.  It's been 50 years since his 1976 silver, so it was great to see Ben Ogden win a medal in the Classic Spring and then for the US to win silver again in the Team Sprint.  On the same day, Mikaela Shiffrin, who really has nothing to prove, exorcised her Olympic demons too, resulting in an extremely satisfying page of headlines in this morning's Salt Lake Tribune.

Having sworn off social media, I've actually watched the replays of many races without knowing the winner.  Last night I had no idea of the US silver in the Team spring when I watched it at 7 PM, making it even more exciting.  

And of course there are the other great Olympic stories.  Breezy Johnson's gold.  I guess she is the new Julia Mancuso, coming up big in Olympics and World Championships (she's never won a World Cup race).  It reminded me of what I once heard Steve Nyman say (I'm paraphrasing here).  In the World Cup you race for points.  In the Olympics you race to win.  

Then there's the incredible comeback of Federica Brignone.  Two golds after a horrific leg fracture in March.  I'm pretty certain she is the oldest woman to win Olympic Alpine skiing gold too.  As an aside, I asked AI who the oldest woman alpine skier to win Olympic gold and it told me it was Mikaela Shiffrin.  

A good reminder that AI is authoritative BS, providing confident responses, often with the wrong answer.  

Jesse Diggins got her individual medal (bronze in the 10 km free).  I suspect this Olympics has not gone as well for her as she hoped, with a crash in the skiathlon apparently having some effects.  That said, Frida Karlsson would have been tough to beat in these games as her top end when she's in great form is remarkable.  Jesse still has a shot at the 50 km Mass Start Classic.  Classic isn't her best style, but I'm not going to put anything past her and if she were to pull it out, it would make a very long race much more exciting to watch.  

And congratulations to Johannes Klaebo on five golds, matching Eric Heiden's record (and he has a shot at a sixth on Saturday).  Dude can fly on skis, and he seems like a good guy, showboating as he crosses the line aside.  I'm actually old enough to remember Heiden's 1980 Olympic conquest.  In fact, my mom is currently flying a flag from the 1980 Olympics at her home in Florida.  This one actually flew at my school during the 1980 Olympics. 

A Bold Forecast

Going out on a limb here, but I predict tomorrow will be the greatest case of powder panic in the history of the Cottonwoods.  Let's see....

• No significant valley snow this season until today
• Few powder days this season
• No parking reservations required at Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, or Solitude
• It's a holiday week

Getting Great Data

After suffering through weeks of drought, we've been getting great data for the SNOWSCAPE2026 field campaign during the storms last week and this week.  

Today we're sampling the cold-frontal system as it is moving through northern Utah and across the northern Wasatch Range.  Below is a video from our causeway radar site during the frontal passage this morning.  Hopefully Blogger won't mangle it too much. 

Having radars on both the western (windward) and eastern (leeward) sides of the Wasatch allows us to examine how precipitation features are affected during transit over a narrow mountain barrier.  In particular, we have the Snowbasin area heavily sampled by ground instruments and now scanned by the radars.  As I'm writing this, we're tracking a strong cold-frontal band as it approaches the mountains (left-hand image below, Snowbasin indicated by SB).  This band just produced lightning in Layton.  With the radar on the causeway, we can observe it in detail as it approaches and moves up the windward slope of the Wasatch.  Then we can observed the front moving into the lee from Huntsville.  Right now the backside is seeing widespread precipitation.  

Enough for now.  Back to work. 

Storm Cycle Update

 Pretty good round of snow or should I say graupel overnight and this morning.  Accumulations in the mountains vary substantially and I'm not sure if Alta wiped their interval stake this morning or not as it looks like 4" on it, but the total snow depth is up 5 to 6 inches and the resort is reporting 8" as of 10 AM so I'll go with that.  

Gauge measured water total is about 1.2".  I'm hearing rumors that's high, but anyway you cut it, it appears to be a high-density graupelfest up there.  Sounds like a good day of skiing in my book.

Forecasts are still on for a colder storm tomorrow that will bring the Greatest Snow on Earth to both the mountains and the valleys.  Timing varies, with the HRRR bringing in a commuter special and the GFS a bit slower.  Strongly recommend that you check forecasts later today if you are commuting in the morning.  Quoting this morning's 5:23 AM issued Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS: 

"Locally higher snow rates will come with the front. Precise timing is lower confidence, with models ranging from roughly 5-11 a.m. for it to track through Salt Lake City. This will be capable of affecting valley travel Wednesday for some commutes, depending on timing."

I have more good news.  I am leaving for Austria on the 24th.  The models are already going for the Steenburgh effect to kick in, meaning snow when I'm out of town.  The Utah Snow Ensemble shows a break in a couple of days, but then things picking up again on the 24th.  

Coincidence?  I think not.