I've mentioned in prior posts that the storm track will be just to our north over the next several days. Indeed, the Pacific Northwest is in for a deluge as they are raked by a series of storm systems. Below is the Utah Snow Ensemble forecast for the 10-day period ending 0000 UTC 18 December. Ensemble mean (upper right) liquid precipitation equivalents above 9" for most of the Cascades from Mt. Hood to Canada.
It's worth a look at the plume for Paradise Ranger Station on Mt. Rainier, one of the wetter locations in the Cascades. The ENS mean is > 20" over the 10 day period with the GEFS mean > 15". There is tight clustering over the first 5 days of the forecast with most ensemble members between about 12.5 and 17.5". We see a lot of spread in the ensemble forecasts sometimes, but this is pretty tight clustering for a major events.
The ensemble grid point for Paradise is at 4942 ft, which is a bit lower than the actual ranger station (~5400 feet), but over the first five days from all of that water most ensemble members are only producing up to 20" of snow. Rain rather than snow for much of the period. What a waste of water.
It's already a sad picture at Crystal Mountain today.
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| Source: https://www.crystalmountainresort.com/the-mountain/mountain-report-and-webcams/webcams |
Worth watching forecasts if you are in the Northwest.
This storm produced insane flooding! If you have the capacity to do another write up on this storm it would interesting to read your take.
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