On Monday we discussed the possibility of big changes this weekend with the potential for a significant snowfall event (see Big Changes Next Weekend). Changes are still coming, but right now it appears that the pattern will not be quite as favorable for mountain snow, although there will still be some.
The latest GFS is still bringing a front through northern Utah this weekend. Below is the forecast valid 0000 UTC 26 Oct (6 PM MDT Saturday) with the front pushing into northwest Utah. It's still looking like we will have a frontal passage Saturday night with Sunday significantly cooler.
That said, the moisture and precipitation with the front isn't quite as robust as advertised a few days ago. There's still a decent chance of valley showers and mountain snow, but amounts are not as high.
Then, instead of the trough digging through the western US, it lifts off to the northeast. We get a bit more precipitation Sunday and Sunday night as the atmospheric river and jet stream behind the front move through, but we never get into the deep, unstable, cold air. Sigh.
The net result is that the water and snow numbers for Collins are on the low end, with all but two members under a 10" total for the storm cycle and half the members under 5.5 inches.
We'll see how things shake out, but this is looking like a good time to keep expectations low and hope for the best.
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