Big Changes Next Weekend

Although this week will be mainly quiet with the exception of a weak monsoon trough that will move across southern Utah Wednesday night and Thursday, next weekend looks exciting.

The latest GFS is forecasting a strong cold front to be moving across northern Utah late Saturday.  Behind the front, a strong jet extends across the Pacific and into the western United States.  

The European is on board with this general pattern shift, but is faster with the front, which it forecasts to be in eastern Utah by late Saturday.  

Regardless of timing, the frontal passage should bring another round of precipitation with it to add to the 4.95" October record at the Salt Lake City International Airport.  Additionally, it also looks to bring mountain snow and even the possibility of valley flakes, although much with regards to that will depend on what happens in the wake of the front.  

The Utah Snow Ensemble forecast for Alta-Collins has a few ENS (European Ensemble) members producing a bit with of snow with the monsoon trough Thursday, although most keep us dry.  However, during and following the frontal passage, many members are keen on a significant snowfall event.  Most are generating something in the 8 to 22 inch range.  

I think it's a bit early to be worried about numbers as this is a pattern in which the details are hard to forecast with precision at such lead times.  It is, however, worthy paying attention to.  We'll see how things evolve over the next couple of days.