Quite an Airmass

As August airmasses go, this has been a good one.  Visibility today was really incredible.  It was crystal clear this morning on Mt. Baldy.

For those of you with the desire for turns, there's still some snow covering the Timpanogos Rock Glacier.

Sadly, our brief flirtation with cooler weather is almost over as heat returns this week.  Today's infographis from the NWS is as grating as it gets.  Blah.

Source: NWS.  Downloaded 7:03 PM MDT Sunday 10 August 2025

Perhaps It Will Never Rain Again

A weak cold front has brought a bit of cooler weather to northern Utah today (Friday).  Today's high at the Salt Lake City International Airport was a pleasant 85 and it looks like we may stay below 90 through the weekend. 

But will it ever rain?  

I'm starting to wonder.

The last measurable rain at the airport was on July 4.  That's a 35 day run.  The record is 63 days, so we have long ways to go to get to that, but the models are still advertising "nonsoon" conditions for the next 10 days.  That would get us to 45 days, which would tie us for the 14th longest streak on record.  If you are wondering, 51 puts us in the top 10.

Also of interest, this year we also had a 34 day streak that ended on June 22nd.  That streak began on May 19.  On May 18, we had a soaker, with 0.73" of rain.  Since then we've had 0.34", good for the 4th lowest on record out of 152 years for the period from May 19 to August 8.

If we were to make it through August 17 without measurable rain, it would be the 2nd-driest May 19 to Aug 17 on record.

And if we were to eek out one more day, and go precipitation free until August 18, it would be the driest May 19 to Aug 18 on record.  

It would sure be nice to see a rainy day.

A Brief But Intense Lake-Dust Event

Late yesterday afternoon, strong winds associated with outflows from storms to the north brought a brief but intense lake-dust event to the Salt Lake Valley.  Satellite imagery showed this dust moving southward through the Salt Lake and Utah Valleys.

Source: CIRA.  Loop also available at https://col.st/80KK0. 

Take a close look at that look, especially the last few frames, and you can also see an area of dust moving off of the Farmington Bay playa and over the south arm of the Great Salt Lake.  There's also evidence of dust from other sources to the west moving through the Skull, Tooele, and Rush Valleys.

Winds at the University of Utah began to pick up at around 1835 MDT when increased to more than 9 mph with gusts to 12 mph.  The peak gust of 20 mph occurred at 1852.  This roughly bracketed a spike in PM2.5 concentrations to just over 8 ug/m3 from 1845-1850 UTC. 

Source: Mesowest

Although the PM2.5 concentrations were not very high, that measurement focuses on smaller particles less than 2.5 microns, whereas wind-blown dust from the lake often contains larger particles and is better measured by instruments that focus on particles up to 10 microns (called PM10).   

Events yesterdays are typical of most July-August dust storms.  They tend to be intense but shortlived and generated by precipitation falling into sub-cloud dry layers, which leads to evaporative cooling.  The evaporatively cooled air spreads outward from the precipitation region, often resulting in strong winds.  The leading edge of this outflow is sometimes referred to as an outflow boundary or gust front.  Often you can see several, which can merge and interact, as evident in yesterday's satellite loop. 

If the lake was full, dust would have been more limited.  Some of us might have only felt a cool and refreshing north wind.  Wouldn't that have been wonderful. 

The Curious Case of July 2025

Many people I have spoken to in recent days as commented that this July wasn't that bad temperature wise.  My impression is somewhat similar, but curiously, the numbers tell a more complex story. 

With an average temperature of 82.9F at the Salt Lake City International Airport, July 2025 rates as the 12th warmest on record.  With records going back 152 years, that puts it solidly in the top 10% for July warmth.  Additionally, there is no July prior to July 2003 that was hotter.  This July was hotter than any July in the late 19th or entire 20th century. 

So why didn't it seem so bad?  A few hypotheses.  For one, it was the coolest July in five years and July 2021, 2022, and 2023 are the three hottest on record, so this July was cooler compared to the recent past.  

Second, although the average temperature is high, we did not see high temperature extremes.  There were no record highs set and we only hit 100 3 times.  On those days the high was 100.  

So this July was characterized by relatively sustained warmth without extremes.  Highs ranged between 89 and 100, and the 89 occurred on only one day (July 4).  Low temperatures on 19 days were 70 or higher, but we did get into the 60s on 12 days.  

Finally, a lack of any strong monsoon circulation or surges means humidities have generally been low.  

The lack of moisture is reflected by the lack of rain.  Measurable precipitation at the airport was recorded on only two days (July 2 and 4), totaling 0.18 inches.  July is a dry month here, averaging 0.49", but 0.18 puts us just inside the upper quarter of driest Julys.

June was also dry and the total precipitation at the airport in both months totaled 0.34", which is the 13th lowest on record.  June-July 1994 is the driest on record with 0.06".

The monsoon is notoriously difficult to predict and there's always the chance that the airport gets nailed by an isolated thunderstorm, but for the most part, the models suggest a continuation of the weather monotony the first week of August and the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the 2nd week promises more of the same.  

Source: NOAA/CPC

You get what you get and you don't throw a fit.

More on the Decline of the Great Salt Lake

A couple of weeks ago I commented on the net decline of water in the Great Salt Lake over the past year (see Status of the Great Salt Lake).

Following a media briefing by Great Salt Lake Commissioner Brian Steed, the low lake levels are now getting press coverage in the Salt Lake Tribune (see Great Salt Lake again dips to 'scary low level') and Deseret News (How is the health of the Great Salt Lake).  

This year's decline is especially disappointing because our April 1 snowpack was 96 to 109 percent of median in basins that drain to the Great Salt Lake.    

Source: NRCS

Although snowpack measured by SNOTEL stations on April 1 doesn't tell the whole spring runoff story, it's not encouraging that we will probably see about a 2 foot decline in lake level in a year during which we reached close-to-median snowpack.

The figure below has been adapted from the 2nd Edition of my book Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth and shows the area of the Great Salt Lake at several elevations.  We are currently at 4192 feet in the south arm and a bit under 4192 feet in the north arm, so just a bit above the 4191 foot level that is indicated.  

As we dip below this level and approach 4180 feet, the Great Salt Lake begins to become increasingly confined to a northwest to southeast oriented corridor.  

A Great Salt Lake if we can save it.  A Great Salt Finger Lake if we can't.  

Snow and Smoke

With the end of July approaching, we've reached the time of year when I wonder if any snow will survive until next season in the central Wasatch.  

Not much remains at present.  I noticed a few shrinking patches in the usual spots on the American Fork Twin and in upper Hogum yesterday from the top of Hidden Peak.  

Can one or more of these survive?  Let's check back in late August.  

Despite the loss of snow, we have avoided blistering heat so far this July with only two days so far reaching 100°F.  We've also been fortunate that the prevailing flow has only intermittently brought a bit smoke into the Salt Lake Valley from the Monroe Canyon Fire south of Richfield (or other western fires).  Sometimes it's been aloft but not at ground level, with a tinge of brown in the clouds.  This seems to be the case this morning, although it's hard to tell from the photo below. 

A reminder that the HRRR-smoke forecasts are available from many commercial sites or you can access them from https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/ or their new DESI page (https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/), web sites that are thankfully sill available from the NOAA Global Systems Laboratory.  The DESI graphics allow for zooming and the like, but you'll need to bore in to find the smoke forecasts [try looking under the Surface drop down menu and you'll find surface and vertically integrated (VI) HRRR smoke forecasts near the bottom].  

Impacts of Trump Cuts at the U

A recent article in the Deseret News highlighted that the University of Utah could be in danger of losing $100+ million annually due to the Trump Administration's grant policies.  

In reality, as discussed to some degree in the article, the policies and budget being pursued by the Trump Administration are far worse than that.  

Although it's a bit ambiguous what the Deseret News editor's based the $100 million figure on, it appears it is the proposed reduction of indirect cost rates applied to grants from current levels (which vary by institution but are typically in the 45–60% range with some lower and higher rates) to 15%.  At the University of Utah, the current rate is 54%, which is applied to most grant expenditures except for a few things such as permanent equipment over $5000, tuition, and participant support. Indirect cost rates are negotiated between institutions and federal agencies and are meant to cover administrative overhead, facilities costs, etc.  For example, I need access to staff to administer my grants and building space for staff and students.  Those costs are not explicitly included in my grants, but are part of the indirect costs. 

The Trump Administration has proposed to cut indirect costs to a rate for all institutions of 15%.  Although many faculty (including me) grumble about the size or growth of indirect costs, the reality is that they are a necessary component of any grant.  A 15% rate is far too low and would not recoup many of the implicit costs of doing research at most institutions.  

As discussed in the article, an alternative is being proposed, which is called the FAIR model and provides more explicit accounting of the indirect costs.  One of the lead developers of this effort is Kelvin Droegemeier, who is not only former White House Office of Science and Technology policy director, but also a Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois.  It's unclear if this will gain traction.

In addition, the $100 million loss emphasized in the headline actually sugarcoats what the Trump Administration is purusing.  The President's budget cuts the National Science Foundation by 55% and the National Institutes of Health 40%.  It also cuts NASA, NOAA, DOE, and EPA.  It is a vicious attack of science pursued or funded by government agencies.  

Thus, the decline in indirect costs, is just the tip of the iceberg.  Under the President's budget, the U's federal funding would decline precipitously, perhaps by about 50%.  

But it gets worse than that.  Federal funding supports graduate students and graduate student tuition.  Without that support, some will not continue in graduate school.  This will result in a decline in student credit hours and tuition.  These are indirect effects that will have very real impacts students and the University of Utah, as well as the development of a STEM workforce.  

In theory, congress ultimately passes the budget, although it has failed to do this in full for a very, very long time, relying instead on a patchwork of bills and continuing resolutions.  The last I saw, cuts in appropriations committees in the Senate and House for the NSF, for example, were $16M and $2B, respectively, which are smaller than proposed by the Trump Administration, but in the case of the House, are still massive. 

Ultimately, the U and its students have a lot to lose, but really we all do given the return on investments in science for advances in medicine, health, technology, and economic development.  

A Pleasant July by Recent Standards

As we enter the climatological hottest part of the year, it seems like this July hasn't been as awful as those in recent memory.

Indeed, looking at the observations from the Salt Lake Airport, the first 3 weeks of the month have come in as cooler (based on average temperature) than the previous four years.  

Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

So, perhaps not too bad by recent standards.  

However, things look different with a long-range view. As evident in the time series above, this July 1-21 still rates as the 11th warmest on record, ahead of any similar period during the 20th century.  

And if you are wondering if that is unique the the airport, it isn't.  The July 1-21 mean temperature at the Bountiful Bench site, with continuous records back to 1975, are also the 11th warmest on record, ahead of all 20th century years for which data is available.  

Insert your complaints in the comments below...

Friday Night Lights

We had a brief interruption of weather monotony yesterday evening in northern Utah with thunderstorms in portions of northern Utah including Utah County, southern and eastern Salt Lake County, Wasatch County, Summit County as illustrated by the radar-estimated precipitation for the 6-hour period ending 0600 UTC 19 July (0000 MDT Saturday).  

Source: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

Northern Salt Lake County, including my place, was largely skunked other than some sprinkles or light showers and gusty winds.  We did get a bit of a light show from the lightning, as well as some weakly developed mammatus

and a primary and secondary rainbow. 

In other news, I am enjoying a temporary office-free period as my boxes were moved from the INSCC building to the new Applied Science building late last week, but I still don't have access to the latter.  If memory serves correct, I spent 27 of my 30 years at the U in 488 INSCC.  I leave behind lots of great memories there, including our old computer teaching lab, interactions with scores of graduate students, weather research and modeling for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games, many field campaigns, and a lot of hooting and hollering during exciting weather.  

Below is the oldest digital photo I could find from the early INSCC days (technically 5 years after moving in). 

Oh to be young again, even with the slow computers and small screens!

New Digs for Atmospheric Sciences (and Physics and Astronomy) at the U!

Today was the ribbon cutting for the new L.S. Skaggs Applied Science Building at the University of Utah.  Look closely for the oversized red scissors.

The building is a game changer for Atmospheric Sciences and Physics and Astronomy at the University of Utah.  Both departments have been in old, decaying buildings for many years (with a few exceptions such as myself who was in a newer building but isolated from most of my colleagues).  We now have a gorgeous, state-of-the-art facility!

A quick tour.

The auditorium.  Looking forward to teaching or giving seminars here.  

The (still-to-be-finished) computer lab where we will be teaching weather analysis and forecasting classes.  

Meeting rooms remain important and I'm hoping to get squatting rights for occasional meetings in this one so I can stare at the views instead of the monitor. 

The future home of Professor Powder.  Sadly, I will no longer be able to see the central Wasatch (I think Physics and Astronomy faculty have dibs on that side of the building), but it's the north side of the building, so it has the right aspect to avoid direct sun.    

The 3rd floor has a blockbuster view to the west.  I can't wait to watch cold fronts, outflow boundaries, and lake-effect storms from here.  The excitement will be palpable!  The physicists have no idea what they are in for.  

The roof is going to be great for astronomy and meteorology, with the left side dedicated to weather instrumentation (not installed yet).  

You can learn more at the Applied Science Project web page or watch this YouTube Video.

Support for the building comes from the State of Utah and many donors, including Department of Atmospheric Sciences faculty, alumni, and friends.  I don't have a complete list and don't want to leave anyone out, so for now I'll just say thank you so much from a grateful department.  If you were unable to make the ribbon cutting today, I'll be happy to give a tour in the future.  Give it a few weeks so that we have more instruments on the roof.   

My current office is completely packed and the movers are coming tomorrow.  It's still a bit unclear when I'll be in the new location, but hopefully sometime next week.  

Status of the Great Salt Lake

The current elevation of the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor on the south shore is 4192.4 feet.  Although this is above the record minimum from 2022, it is still well below the long-term average of 4200 feet and the so-called minimum health level of 4198 feet.  It has now been about 13 years since we were last at that minimum healthy level. 

Source: USGS

A look over the past year shows a net decline in elevation on this date of nearly 2 feet.  Lake levels will decrease further in the coming months as they typically decline through the summer and fall.  Last year we dropped about 2 feet after this date. 

Lake elevations over the past year at Saltair. Source: USGS

The current elevation at Saline in the north arm is 4191.9 feet, which is very close to where it was last year. 

Lake elevations over the past year at Saline. Source: USGS

So it's a "push" in the north arm and a net loss in the south arm, which means a net decline for the entire lake system, 

Yesterday's crystal-clear skies provided a great view from NASA's MODIS instrument.  There's still a bit of water in Bear River Bay and a sliver in Farmington Bay, but for the most part, those bays are desiccated of water coverage.  

Source: NASA

Keep rooting for big snow years.  We need a few of them. 

Very July-Like Pattern

It's pretty slow in the weather department these days.  As is often the case in July, the storm track is well to the north and the GFS forecast for the next 10 days (below) shows just some gasps monsoon moisture to give us some afternoon clouds and maybe some showers or t-storms from time to time.  

Perhaps one of those monsoon surgest can be a bit more potent.  There's one near the end of the forecast period that runs through western Colorado and Eastern Utah.  Maybe it will pay a visit.  That said, this looks about as July-like as July gets. 

A colleague commented that it seems like it has been pretty dry.  Since mid May , there have been four days with measurable rain at the Salt Lake Airport: May 15 (0.21"), May 18 (0.73"), June 22 (0.16"), and July 4 (0.16").  If we were to make it to July 20 without any more precipitation, the 2-month period from May 20 to July 20 would be the 8th driest on record (the lowest such period for precip is 0.05" in 1889).  We'll see though if that pans out though.  

Thinking Slow Instead of Posting Fast

A tip of the hat for the paraphrasing of post's title to Daniel Kahneman's excellent book, "Thinking Fast and Slow." 

Early in the morning on July 4, a flash flood hit the Guadalupe River in Kern County, Texas.  As I write this in the evening on July 9, media reports suggest there are 120 confirmed deaths and still more than 150 people missing.  

This is a terrible tragedy that given modern weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities shouldn't happen.  The question is why did it happen?

In our modern, social-media-driven, hyper-politicalized times, you can find just about anything to support your preconceived notions as to why this happened.  There have been reports blaming climate change, National Weather Service personnel cuts, National Weather Service forecasts, the retirement of a National Weather Service Warning Coordination meteorologist due to the actions of Doge, lax county emergency management officials, unapproved alarm systems, etc.  

This is a situation though that needs slower thinking and less fast posting.

What is needed is a careful, apolitical assessment of everything from the long-term education and preparation of communities to the issuing, content, and delivery of weather watches and warnings.  

This is a tragedy that shouldn't have happened.  For it to never happen again, we need to rise to the occasions, ask hard questions, understand where our scientific, political, and communications systems failed, and move forward.  This will take leadership and expertise, not social media posts, sloppy news coverage, or CYA politics.  

Escape to Marine Air

I've heard there have been a few storms in northern Utah, but we escaped on the 1st of the month to the blissfully cool and moist air of Ketchikan, Alaska.  I haven't seen a temperature above 64°F since arriving and the sky has mostly been cloud covered.  You know, proper hiking weather.  

Few things top the 4th of July in Ketchikan.  You haven't really lived until you've experienced the parade here.

And the flying of the flag by heli to open the festivities remains one of my favorite traditions.

I'm not a good fisherman, but fortunately my wife's cousin is.  He led us to victory this morning.   

It's raining now.  No complaints.

A Pulse of Monsoon Moisture

There will be a subtle change in the weather this week as a bit of monsoon moisture streams up into Utah.  

I hesitate to call it a monsoon surge as it's not a strong one.  We'll call it a pulse.

The GFS forecast valid at 1800 UTC 2 July (1200 MDT Wednesday) shows the key players and features.  The first is is a weak, slow moving trough in the westerlies over California (L in the upper-left panel).   The second is what is known as an easterly wave that is moving slowly westward and best evident at 700 mb (dashed line lower-left panel) and is contributing to the development of Tropical Storm Flossie, that is expected to be a hurricane by this forecast time (red L in lower-left and upper-right panels).  

The phasing of these features leads to a narrow plume of high integrated vapor transport (red arrow lower-right panel) that extends from Flossie, up the Gulf of California, and up the lower Colorado River Basin into Nevada and Utah.  

As a result, northern Utah will see an increase in convective clouds, especially in the afternoon, through Wednesday, with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms that will probably be most prevalent in upper-elevation areas such as the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains.  The potential for isolated to scattered T-storms may remain until the 4th of July depending on how things play out.  Monitor forecasts, consider an early start for upper-elevation hikes and bikes, and get off high peaks and ridges if conditions warrant.  As the saying goes, when thunder roars, head indoors, or at least into a vehicle if you are in the open and one is nearby. 

One concern from this pattern is the potential for natural fire starts from lightning.  Let's hope that doesn't materialize and that everyone plays safe with fireworks.  It's a tinderbox out there. 

Cuts to NOAA, NASA, NSF, Etc.

The budget cuts currently being considered by the US congress would have devastating impacts on American science and STEM workforce development, including the atmospheric and related sciences.  They are not surgical.  They will seriously impede American science and the education of students in science and engineering.  

I have reproduced below an e-mail that I received yesterday from the leadership of the American Meteorological Society summarizing these cuts and their related impacts.  Links are provided if you are interested in contacting your Senator.  

--------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you to everyone who has taken action by reaching out to members of Congress and sharing your perspectives on the critical importance of the weather, water, and climate enterprise to our nation and the federal government's foundational role. The weather enterprise keeps all citizens prepared for hazardous extreme events and helps to grow our economy, providing a great return on investment.    The budget discussions in Congress continue, with many items yet to be decided. Please join us in continuing to share your concerns with decision makers!     We have great stories to tell about the value of our enterprise and the transformational work being done in government laboratories, private sector companies, and universities. In mid-May, AMS Presidents (Stensrud, Sealls, Bamzai, and Colman) visited Congress, and more visits are planned for this summer. Many past AMS presidents and AMS members also have met with their elected officials, so know that you are not alone in your outreach efforts (AGU, AAAS, AIP, and Sigma Xi, and many other science societies are also encouraging member outreach). Indeed, collectively, we are doing our best to change the current budget trajectory.     If there ever were a time to stand for science — and meteorological and related sciences in particular — this is it. Thank you for being an Upstander for Science!

It is challenging to keep abreast of deliberations on the Hill and all the moving parts, so below are reminders on current proposed budget items related to the weather, water, and climate enterprise and science in general. The House passed its version of the FY2026 budget in May, and the Senate is currently writing its version. The Senate is using a process called "Reconciliation" to pass their version of the FY2026 budget, which only requires a simple majority to pass. If the House approves the Senate's Reconciliation bill and President Trump signs it, it will become the law. At that point, the appropriations process would proceed to determine the annual funding levels for the agencies using the budget numbers specified through the Reconciliation process. Current proposals (see also the AIP Budget Tracker) include a: 28% cut to NOAA, prioritizing funding for NWS while dissolving NOAA Research that includes funding for NOAA laboratories, cooperative institutes, and extramural projects to academia. This would dramatically slow down forecast model development, reduce observations and monitoring, and lead to the termination of NOAA-University partnerships. All in all, this bodes an uncertain future for weather radar and satellites, as well as a decline in weather forecast accuracy, with downstream impacts on costs related to energy, transportation, and agriculture.  47% reduction in NASA science and terminating support for the Orbiting Carbon Observatories, and the Terra, Aqua, and Aura satellites. Terra, Aqua, and Aura have been operating for decades and their observations are assimilated into forecast models as well as used to monitor droughts, dust, and air quality. The Atmosphere Observing System, and Surface Biology and Geology missions would also be terminated.  56% cut to NSF which supports university research (including graduate students) and NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This would lead to greatly reduced university-led research, decline in graduate students that eventually constitute the next-generation of scientists in the field and a dramatic reduction in capabilities at NSF NCAR used by our community.  39% cut to USGS science, including the elimination of the ecosystem mission area, and a 14% cut for DOE Office of Science, both of which directly impact federal-university partnerships in earth and environmental sciences, as well as capabilities in national labs and atmospheric science research productivity.

To find your Congressional Representative or Senator you can use these resources: Find Your Representative Find Your Senator Encourage your family and friends to reach out as well to amplify your collective impact!   If you have been affected by federal changes so far, you can find AMS resources here that may assist you.    Sincerely,    David Stensrud, AMS President 2025 Alan Sealls, Incoming President 2026 Anjuli Bamzai, Past President 2024 Brad Colman, Past President 2023

The Heat Is Back On

Our brief run of below average temperatures will probably end today (Thursday, June 26) after five wonderfully cool days, including Sunday, June 22nd when we only reached 65.  The hiking that day was wonderfully cool, especially in the morning.  No complaints about wet brush, which we encountered a lot of, as it was nice to enjoy the cool, moist air.

The National Weather Service is forecasting a high of 93 for the Satl Lake City Airport today, which will push us back above average. Highs in the 90s look to continue for the forseeable future.  Sigh...

About the June Warmth

I hope you are enjoying this weekend's pleasant temperatures.  It was great to open the house up this morning and let the 50-something air pour in.  

I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at some stats from the first 2/3 of June.

The average temperature for the first 20 days of June was 76.4°F, which rates as the 2nd highest on record.  Additionally, there has been no measurable precipitation at the airport since May 18th.  Basically a worst-case scenario for drying in the early part of summer. 

Then we hit 104 on Thursday, which rates as the fourth highest temperature recorded at the airport prior to June 30.  

Combined with wind and low humidity, Thursday (and to a decent degree Friday) brought "hair dryer" conditions to Salt Lake City, with dangerous fire weather conditions across most of Utah, including southwest Utah where the Forsyth and France Canyon fires are raging.  Per the Salt Lake Tribune, as of Friday afternoon the latter has sadly destroyed 12 structures, including primary and secondary homes. 

This has the chance to be a summer with extreme fire intensities, especially in southern Utah where snow was scant this past winter.  Let's be careful out there.  

It's a Trough!

It will take a while to get here, but a bonafide trough will be coming to Utah for the weekend.

Before that, we're going to be in the so-called warm-before-the-storm (in this case a dry frontal passage with dust) with a ridge building over Utah today.

The ridge will be followed by the development of warm southwesterly flow ahead of the trough later in the week, as illustrated by the GFS forecast below for 0000 UTC 21 June (6 PM MDT Friday).

Although yesterday's high was "only" 87 and this morning was pleasant, our July like weather returns for the rest of the work week with NWS forecast highs for the Salt Lake City airport of 92 today, 102 Thursday, and 96 on Friday.  Critical fire weather conditions will be in place for much of this period.

Saturday is a transition day with the front forecast to be moving over northern Utah at 0000 UTC 22 June (6 PM MDT Saturday).  

Depending on your location and exposure, this looks like a recipe for dust Friday and Saturday in both the pre-frontal environment and the post-frontal environment.  Salt Lake City could see some wind-blown pre-frontal dust from origins to the south and southwest ahead of the front and then from the exposed Great Salt Lake once the front is through.  Good times.  

Once the dust has settled (pun intended), Sunday looks very pleasant with valley highs in the mid 70s.  It looks like a good day for a hike, but bring a couple of layers if you are going to higher elevations. Our GFS-derived forecast guidance for Little Cottonwood is calling for 34F at Alta-Collins (9600 ft) and 31F on Mt. Baldy (11,000 ft) at 9 AM and afternoon temps in the high 40s and high 30s, respectively.  

Essentially No Change in the Status Quo

This afternoon (Thursday July 12) I heard a few claps of thunder in the Aves with a very brief shower that didn't quite fully wet the sidewalk.  It was about the most exciting thing to happen weatherwise in a while.

The last day with measurable rain at the Salt Lake City International Airport was May 25th, 18 days ago.  Hot and dry will be the weather story for the foreseeable future.  Nearly all members of the Utah "Snow" ensemble are showing nothing over the next seven days, although there is a member or two that pops up a stray shower here or there (look hard to see if you can find them). 

So, maybe we get lucky, but for the most part, as promised a few days ago, June is the new July.  At least the humidity is low.  

An Early Start to July

Yesterday's high at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 90.  The NWS forecast for today is also 90 and every day through next Sunday has forecast highs in the 90s.

Source: NWS.  Downloaded 0802 MDT 9 June 2025.

These are July-like highs, although the nighttime mins in the 60s may make things a bit more tolerable.

That said, I'm not a fan of long stretches of July-like weather in June.  It often makes summer unbearably long.  Let's hope the latter half of the month is cooler.

The End is Nigh

Both the Atwater and Snowbird SNOTELs look like they will hit the end of the snowcover season today or tomorrow.  

The Atwater site is across from Alta Ski Area.  This is a relatively new site with only a few years of data, so don't read too much into the median or range of prior data.  It currently sits at 0.3" of water equivalent, which for all intents and purposes puts it at zero today.  

Snowbird sits at 1.9", but it has been a flaky site all season and only declined from 2.2 to 1.9" yesterday, which makes little sense, but it's not unusual to see some odd observations when the snowpack is near the end.  

Regardless, it looks to be done by tomorrow or the day after that at latest.  

These are of course point observations, so there's still going to be some snow out there, but as far as the SNOTEL observations are concerned, this is the end of the snow season in the central Wasatch.  

First Day of June is Like July

 As I type this on Sunday afternoon (June 1), the temperature at the Salt Lake City International Airport is about 92°F at 2 PM.  The record for the day is 94°F, so we have a solid shot at tying or eclipsing that.  A high of 94 is also consistent with the average high for July 11, so we're getting a too early taste of mid summer.  

Fortunately a weak cold front is coming through tomorrow morning.  Tomorrow afternoon will be more pleasant than today with cooler, drier, northwesterly flow.  

Right now it's looking like the frontal passage will probably be a dry one in Salt Lake.  The NWS forecasts give us the not quite zero possibility of a shower or thunderstorm: "A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 3am."

Hopefully we see something, although my expectations are for nothing.  At least it will be cooler tomorrow.  

Signs of the Times

These are minor issues compared to what many are dealing with, but yesterday I received two e-mails that are reflective of the times. 

In the first, I was notified that a proposal I submitted to a NOAA Weather Program Office competition was recommended for funding.  Normally this is good news, but this year, that news was accompanied with the caveat that they probably won't be able to find funding.  

That would be a shame because we were planning on using deep learning to further advance the the techniques approaches we've been developing to improve snow density and snow amount forecasting.  Many of the products on weather.utah.edu and features on this blog use experimental versions of these techniques.  Without support, this line of research will probably whither in the coming months as our current grant winds down (and this assumes that funding is not frozen). 

In the second, I was notified that I was eligible for the Voluntary Special Retirement Program at the University of Utah. You know you are getting old when you get one of these.   

The U has been tight lipped about their plans to address the HB 265 Strategic Reinvestment Plan.  They recently posted an online news article on @THEU that basically said little other than they presented a draft of phase one of the reinvestment plan to the Utah System of Higher Education (USHE).  Presumably this special retirement program is a small part of that.  

Based on that article, I suspect we will learn more in the near future, certainly no later than June 6 when plans are to be presented to the Utah Board of Education.  

Death of a Snowpack

A look at the latest snowpack water equivalent numbers from Utah SNOTEL stations shows that most are now snow free.

Source: NRCS

Don't be fooled by the red dot in southwest Utah.  That's the Midway Valley SNOTEL and it hit zero on May 15.  The red fill is spurious.  There are only two other sites in Utah with measurable snow, Big Flat (orange) at 10,320 ft in the Tushar Mountains, and Farnsworth Lake (green) at 9,620 ft in the mountains east of Richfield.  

The northern Utah snowpack is also non-existent at most SNOTELs [and some of the red dots above are also spurious and there's no snow at the site (e.g., Ben Lomond Peak, Lookout Peak, Brighton)].  Those with measurable snow are at high elevations and only one, USU Doc Daniel (yes, that's the name) is over 70% of median (and it's at 71%).  

I actually don't like using the percentage of median this time of year.  Instead, I look to look at how many days ahead of median the melt out is. If we look at Snowbird, for example, we see that the current snowpack water equivalent (black line) is 12.1 inches.  The median snowpack (green line) reaches that on June 3rd, so the melt out at this site is about a week ahead of median. 

Source: NRCS

The Snowbird site seemed to have a lot of problems earlier this winter, so perhaps there's a bit more uncertainty in that estimate, but a quick eyeball suggests meltout about 3-10 days ahead of median at many northern Utah sites.  

For the snow that remains, it's a bloodbath with near ideal conditions for melt in Utah through the weekend with a high-amplitude ridge in place, above average temperatures, long days, and a high-angle sun.  Most of the energy to melt snow in northern Utah comes from the sun and there's going to be a lot of incoming solar radiation the next several days.  

In some areas, the snow surface has also been darkened by dust.  The Alta High Rustler web cam shows a snowpack that is quite "snirty". 

A dusty snowpack absorbs more solar energy than a white one, so snowmelt at places like Alta is accelerated.  

In the past 5 days, the snow depth at Alta Collins decreased from 92 to 76 inches, an average of 3.2 inches per day.  At that rate, we'll be down to about 60 inches by June 1.  My guess is we'll be a bit lower than that given the pattern.