Mother Nature gave us the storm we needed. Water and snow totals per this morning's Utah Avalanche Center are 3.38-4.66"/40-50" in the upper Cottonwoods and 1.80-2.58"/20-30" on the Park City Ridgeline. Big totals as well in the northern and southern Wasatch. All northern and central Wasatch SNOTEL sites are at or above the 1991-2020 median for the day except Thaynes Canyon which sits at 86%. Sorry Wasatch Backers.
I thought we would take a look back at a few forecasts for the event, starting with the ensembles. I'll just use the ones for Alta Collins that I included in prior blog posts and will use the range of water equivalent and snow reported for the upper Cottonwoods for verification. The Alta-Collins numbers would be at the top end of this range.
The 3.38-4.66" of water was in the upper 12-22% of water equivalent forecasts produced by the downscaled NAEFS from 00Z 29 November. For snow, however, we were much closer to the mean.
For the SREF, the 3.38-4.66" of water was in the upper 15-40% of members (and roughly at the mean for the ARW members...this is the wetter of the two forecast models used for the SREF). Similar to the NAEFS, for snow, we were near or just below the mean.