Friday, November 14, 2014
Imagine if Jack Bauer wasn't a secret agent, but instead was a meteorologist. Fox would have an endless treasure trove of plot ideas to tap into. Forecasts for severe and unusual weather. Tornado out breaks. Snowstorms. Let's start season 1 this morning since the next 24 hours are pretty interesting.
Instead of terrorists, we have a band of precipitation precipitation near the Utah–Idaho border. There are a few scattered showers over the Wasatch Range to the south. This pattern will likely persist for most of the day today. The north gets most of the action, while we get some intermittent mountain snow showers to the south. It's not too exciting, but the climax is of course tonight.
The NAM forecast for 0300 UTC (2000 MST) shows things picking up in the evening. The main precipitation band associated with the approaching front remains to the north, but the orographic snow showers pick should be picking up in frequency and intensity in overnight, first in the northern Wasatch and Bear River Range, and then eventually in the central Wasatch.
Bauer's best forecasting work will need to be done late tonight and early tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches and moves through the area. Although not a long lived event, it will bring a period of heavy snow to the mountains, some snow on the east bench, and maybe even an angry inch on the valley floor.
Accumulations will likely be greatest in the northern mountains. The upper Cottonwoods got 3" yesterday and I'll go with another 6–12" through noon tomorrow (things may wind down a couple hours before then, but that's an easy time to peg). After that, the front is through and season 1 concludes.