Wasatch Weather Weenies

Some small lenticular clouds over the Wasatch this morning are a sign of strengthening flow ahead of an approaching storm. After several days of monotony, the next few days look to be quite interesting in northern Utah. First, we have the warm before the storm.  There are already signs that the southerly flow is increasing and that we're in for record warmth today.  Note the lenticulars over the Wasatch this morning (above), plus, in the morning sounding, there's 25 knot flow just 200 m above the surface.  Thus, it looks like we'll mix out the stable airmass that's been over the Salt Lake Valley and keeping our afternoon temperatures "only" in the 50s.  In fact, the mix out has already begun as temperatures at the airport after midnight climbed into the 40s and are already running 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.   The average high for today is only 38ºF.  The record high is 62ºF and I think that will probably fall today.   Tomorro...

It's hard to believe, but the last day with 10" of snow or more at Alta was November 23rd.  Given that we won't see snow again until Friday night and Saturday, that means we'll have a run of at least 16 days without a deep-powder day.  Anticipation for snow is running high! The forecast through the arrival of the next storm is fairly straightforward—continued unseasonably warm weather.  The only real question is how warm will it get, especially Thursday and Friday.  The latest GFS shows southerly flow picking up in advance of the approaching storm system late Thursday. This strong flow persists Thursday night and Friday.  Earlier in the week I thought we might make a run into record temperature territory on Thursday.  That's still a possibility, but the strong winds ahead of the approaching storm are coming in a bit slower than in previous forecast runs.  For temperatures to really skyrocket in December in Salt Lake City we need the flow to pick...

Regular readers of this blog know that I believe we desperately need more real-time air quality monitors in the Salt Lake Valley (see Inversion Snippets from 23 Jan 2013 for example). I'm pleased to report that some of my colleagues have taken the bull by the horns and have placed weather and air quality instruments on a Utah Transportation Authority (UTA) TRAX train system.  This will provide an unprecedented look at PM2.5 concentrations in the Salt Lake Valley and along transects running up the west and east benches. Here's a look at the data coming in this morning.  PM2.5 concentrations this morning are lowest on the west bench (light green circles) and highest from roughly 4500 South to 2100 South (yellow circles). Source: http://meso1.chpc.utah.edu/mesotrax/ Another perspective is provided by the time series below showing measurements over a 3-hour period.  The cyan line is pressure.  When it's high, the train is along the valley floor and when i...

Temperatures have been well above average so far this December, including a record high for the date on December 4 (59ºF). However, it can and will get even warmer.  If you look at the record maximum temperatures indicated by the red shading above, you can see that there have been some December days that have been "smoking hot", namely December 1st (69ºF) and December 21 (67ºF). How about we take a run at those this week?  Check out the GFS forecast below for Thursday afternoon.  Strong south winds and 700-mb temperatures of about +4ºC.  That equates to a high in the valley approaching 70ºF. So, the heat will be on and it appears we may flirt with the warmest temperatures on record for December. The good news is that the models are calling for a storm to rumble in Friday night.  Keep your fingers crossed. Upcoming Event :  I'll be giving a talk on my new book Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth at the Alta Lodge at 5:30 PM on Friday Decem...

In Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth , I discuss the origins of the phrase Greatest Snow on Earth and was able to trace it back to an article written by Tom Korologos in December 1960.  More recently, I stumbled across an early advertisement using the phrase that appeared in the October 1967 issue of Skiing that I thought you might enjoy.   In the foreground (bottom) is Catherine's Pass, Albion Basin, and the Sugarloaf area of Alta.  If the area looks remarkably underdeveloped, you're right.  The Sugarloaf lift was installed at Alta in 1967.  In all likelihood the photo was taken in 1966 (or earlier) before the lift was installed.  Sunnyside was installed in 1970.  The Albion chair was installed in 1963, but is blocked by the lower portion of Mt. Wolverine. Just to add further to the nostalgia, here's the cover of that issue of Skiing.

For Salt Lakers it can be hard to leave the friendly confines of the Cottonwood Canyons.  However, powder is a precious commodity and there are places in Utah with more snow. The snowpack in the Cottonwoods remains meager, but the mountains east of Logan have more.  The Tony Grove Lake SNOTEL has a snowpack with 9.5 inches of water, 135% of the median for the date.  This compares to 6.0 inches/85% of median at Snowbird. Toby Weed's report for the Utah Avalanche Center reads: " The coverage is quite good above around 8000', with the heavy snows from November nicely filling in the rocky terrain. You can ride just about anywhere without sinking in too deeply and you can see the larger protruding rocks, but I found ascending on skis difficult in places because of a slippery rime-crust beneath a few inches of mashed potato-like snow. " Ok, so they have better cover, but perhaps some not-so-great skiing.  Then again, perhaps beggars can't be choosers.  ...

One thing I like about our new experimental high-resolution downscaled forecasts based on the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is they make my job easy when we're in a week-long drought. That's the case today.  As can be inferred from the plots below, we're not expecting much between now and at least the middle of next week with no ensemble members calling for significant snow.  Maybe a flurry here or there, but that's it. Looking for hope in the Euro?  There's nothing there either.  Lube the chain and hit the valley mountain bike trails. Upcoming Event :  I'll be giving a talk on my new book Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth at the Alta Lodge at 5:30 PM on Friday December 12th, with a book signing to follow.  King's English will be there selling books as well.