Wasatch Weather Weenies

Just in case you weren't up to see it.

Today we have a day of unsettled weather with surface heating contributing to the development of convective rain and snow showers.  With the large-scale flow from the north-northeast today, looking west won't do you much good.  Instead, the showers are moving from the north-northeast to the south-southwest. Some of the stronger cells are putting out some ice pellets over the Salt Lake Valley.

Today was one of the more enjoyable days of the year.  Conditions were better than expected, and we skied a couple of primo runs first thing this morning while the sun was peeking through the clouds at Alta.    It was a nice way to conclude our vacation. Amongst the particles falling from the sky around noon were some heavily rimed snowflakes.   Some might even call this graupel.  Chances are we will see more of it at times through tomorrow.  For graupel (or heavily rimed snowflakes) to form, you need two things.  The first is supercooled cloud water, very tiny droplets that are below 0ºC, but freeze on contact with an ice crystal.  Most clouds contain supercooled cloud water, but warmer clouds typically have more cloud water than colder clouds.  With free-atmosphere crest-level temperatures near -4ºC, we're dealing with relatively warm clouds today and tomorrow [compared to most (but not all) mid-winter storms]. The second are st...

Sorry to abandon everyone the past few days.  The kids are off school and we've been on a camping trip in southern Utah.  There was plenty going on weather and climate wise.  First, there was Lake Powell, where we found the pool elevation is down a bit compared to the last time they were running the Bullfrog Ferry. Based on this chart from the Bureau of Reclamation, that appears to be fairly typical for this time of year as the runoff is just about to begin.  Presently, Lake Powell is down about 25 feet compared to the high stand last year. While Lake Powell is a man-made wonder, one doesn't have to wander far to find natural wonders created by meteorology, hydrology, and geology. But the meteorological high point was yesterday when south winds transported sand and dust through much of souteast Utah. After suffering through a similar windstorm while camping near Escalante a few years ago (sadly, that tent did not survive), we opted to spend the...

After a winter of disappointing model forecasts it is hard to get too excited about the potent looking storm cycle on the horizon. However, the models have been fairly consistent over the last few days in positioning a longwave trough over Utah for the end of the week and weekend. Here is the 500mb GFS ensemble mean and spread for friday afternoon The blue colors on the left image mean upper level heights will be below average, which usually means cooler and stormy weather, and the agreement of the various ensemble members on the right means there is confidence in this forecast. For the past few weeks (and most of the winter) Utah has been under a upper level ridge so this will be a welcome pattern change. However, large scale upper level support is only one ingredient for stormy weather. The operational forecast shows another necessary ingredient: smaller scale energetic shortwaves that will dumbbell through the trough axis to help enhance precipitation. Here is the GFS analysis...

If you find you feel a bit parched today, it's because it is bone dry out.  Dewpoints on top of Mount Baldy last night dropped to below zero and bottomed out at about -14ºF. The morning sounding from KSLC shows a large dewpoint depression (i.e., the difference between the temperature and the dew point) throughout the troposphere.  The precipitable water , a measure of how much water you would have if you condensed out all the water vapor in the atmospheric column, is only 0.17 inches. Source: NOAA/NWS/SPC That's dry, but Reno is even drier.  How about a precipitable water of 0.03". That's parched.

As my son put it, you could feel the bottom, but it was fun anyway.  Yesterday's storm combined with today's bluebird conditions was like a gift from the Gods and a much needed salve on the wounds from a poor ski season. Even the porcupines were out celebrating.  This guy has been hanging out around the Supreme Chair at Alta the past few weeks and is fairly friendly, although at least one unfortunate soul got quilled today.  I prefer to keep my distance.   An epic Easter is on tap for tomorrow as it should be a beautiful, warm day with a high temperature at KSLC near 70F.   Don't put away the powder boards yet, however, as the models call for the spring roller coaster to continue this week, with an upper-level trough moving around mid week.   We'll have to see how things pan out, but I'm intrigued enough that I dropped off my new Dynafit Manaslus this afternoon to get mounted up.