Evidence of a "Warm" Snow Drought

The latest snow observations show very clear evidence of a "warm" snow drought, one in which the snowpack has been strongly affected by abnormally warm temperatures, resulting in a majority of precipitation falling as rain and periods of snowmelt or loss at low to mid elevations.  

Evidence of this warm snow drought is especially clear if one looks at the yesterday's percentage of median 1991–2020 snowpack water equivalent at SNOTEL stations as a function of elevation.  As shown in the plot below, stations below 7600 feet are at 30-49% of median and, as indicated by the red bars, are all at all time minimums for their periods of records (which vary in length but extend back at least 27 years).  

Source: NRCS

In contrast, the percentage of median at higher elevation stations is higher and anywhere from 69–111%.  Yes, incredibly, both the Snowbird and Brighton SNOTELs are now sitting above median.  It's good to be at high altitude in the upper Cottonwoods.  As meteorologist S. D. Green said in 1935: 

"Skiers will eventually find that the…heads of the [Cottonwood] canyons…offer the best skiing to be found in the Wasatch Mountains.”

But if he were alive today, he might instead say:

"Skiers will eventually find that the…heads of the [Cottonwood] canyons…offer the best skiing to be found in the Wasatch Mountains and their advantages over other lower elevation regions of the Wasatch are growing as the climate warms."

But now lets add insult to injury and turn off the precipitation.  The latest model forecasts are pretty much a disaster.  A massive high-amplitude ridge is setting up along the Pacific Coast and looks to starve Utah of moisture.  I am electing not to show the forecasts due to their graphic nature, which some readers might find disturbing.  

SNOWSCAPE2026 Begins

I'm supposedly on sabbatical this academic year, but the reality is that I've been working a ton with colleagues at the University of Utah and institutions planning, preparing, and now executing the SNOWSCAPE2026 field campaign.

SNOWSCAPE is an acronym for the Seeded and Natural Orographic Winter Storms and CAtchment Processes Evaluation Project, with 2026 indicating that it is being held during the 2026 water year (we hope we may be able to do this in future years too).  This is the largest field campaign examining winter storms in northern Utah since the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX) in 2000 and also includes a major snow hydrology component.  

SNOWSCAPE is specifically examining winter-storm processes and the impacts of cloud seeding on snowfall, snowpack accumulation, snowmelt, and runoff in Utah's northern Wasatch Mountains and the lower Weber and Ogden basins.  We have established a one-of-a-kind transect of observing sites from the eastern end of the Antelope Island Causeway, over Snowbasin, to Huntsville to document changes in storm characteristics from the Wasatch Front lowlands to the mountain valleys.  Along or near this transect we have weather cameras, precipitation gauges, lidar ceilometers (which measure cloud base and precipitation characteristics), microwave radiometers (which provide profiles of temperature and cloud liquid water), profiling radars, snow-energy balance stations, and streamflow gauges.  We also have an aerosol sampling system at Powder Mountain that is measuring the characteristics of small particles in the atmosphere that can serve as the seeds of cloud droplet formation or ice crystal formation in clouds.  

Below is some data from the lidar ceilometer and microwave radiometer at Snowbasin from yesterday.  The lidar helps to identify cloud base and even snowfall below cloud base (top image).  The microwave radiometer provides profiles of the amount of supercooled liquid water in the cloud (bottom image).  In this case, the cloud was comprised of both ice crystals (some of which grew large enough to fall out as light snow at times) and supercooled liquid water droplets, with high concentrations up to about 3500 m MSL (11,000 ft).   

We have also positioned scanning Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radars on the Antelope Island Causeway and in east Huntsville to examine in fine detail the structure of storms across the Wasatch Range.  Compared to most weather radars you are probably familiar with, these radars are more sensitive, higher resolution, and can be programmed to scan vertically.  Below is a radar image from yesterday from the Huntsville site showing light precipitation in the Ogden and Morgan Valleys, areas where the National Weather Service Radar on Promontory Point is blocked by the northern Wasatch.  

We're super excited now to really dig into some storms, but Mother Nature is not being cooperative.  After today's snowshowers, the forecast is dry with a "death ridge" along the west coast for at least the next few days and in many ensemble forecasts beyond that.  So, I have both personal and professional reasons for hoping we get a needed pattern change.  

I hope to share some exciting observations at some point in the future.  

A Pretty Good Storm

Mother Nature brought the goods over the past two days.  Here are 48-hour water equivalents for the period ending at 11 AM 5 January:

Ben Lomond Peak Snotel: 2.8"
Snowbasin Boardwalk: 2.42"
Brighton Snotel: 2.6"
Alta-Collins: 3.73"
Snowbird Snotel: 4.0"

The trace of accumulated precipitation at Alta-Collins for the period snows that most of this fell in the past 24 hours.  In fact, the water-equivalent precipitation for the 24-hour period ending at 11 AM this morning was 3.03".  I'm always impressed by storms that produce 3" of water in 24 hours.  

Source: MesoWest

It's worth noting that this was a storm period characterized by southerly to southwesterly flow that shifted to westerly during the trough passage this morning.  Below is the wind speed (red line), gust (green plus signs), and wind direction (blue circles) on Mt. Baldy for the same period as above.  Note the predominance of southerly to southwesterly flow until around 0300 MST when the flow veered to westerly.  

Northwesterly flow gets a lot of attention, but southerly and southwesterly flow can bring the goods to Alta too, typically in the form of big water.  Snowfall amounts in these events are typically "subdued" due to the low snow-to-liquid ratios, as was the case in this storm.  Out of the 3.73" of water, the total snowfall was only 21", which represents a snow-to-liquid ratio of only 5.6 to 1 (a whopping 18% water content).  Although not the Greatest Snow on Earth, that's some of the Greatest Base Builder on Earth and just what we need.

The snow depth at Alta-Collins is now 64" and we have eclipsed 10" of water equivalent at the Atwater (13.5") and Snowbird (13.2") SNOTELs.  Thus, I am officially declaring the start of "good early season ski conditions)" since I often use 60" of snow or 10" of snowpack water equivalent for that threshold.  

This may be hard to believe, but as of last night the Snowbird and Brighton SNOTELs were at 95% and 93% of median snowpack water equivalent for the date, respectively.  Elsewhere things are worse, even much worse at lower elevations, but the upper elevations continue to claw their way to respectability.  

An Upward Trend

 Despite recent posts grumbling about warmth and a lack of snow at low elevations, the reality is that the skiing at upper elevations has been incrementally improving and all elevations should see gains in snowpack over the next several days.  

The upward trend began on Christmas Eve, which was likely the worst day of skiing I've ever had in the Wasatch.  Simply an abomination.  I've been out 3 days since, all at Alta, and each day things have improved.  Groomers today were just fine and we should be happy about that given where we were several days ago.  

And the forecast for the coming work week looks pretty good.  Mean Utah Snow Ensemble SWE for Alta Collins through 12Z 10 January (5 AM MST Saturday) is a around 3" and snow close to 40".  The driest ensemble member is about 1.5" of water an 17" of snow.  

More importantly, temperatures are falling.  Tomorrow remains unseasonably mild, but temperatures (and snow levels) decline gradually Sunday night and Monday.  During the day Monday, snow levels look to fall to near bench levels and remain near or below that level through the work week.  

Let's hope Mother Nature bings further improvement to ski and snowpack conditions.

Pity the Low Elevations

There's some healthy precipitation numbers in the Wasatch from this storm including as of about 11 AM this morning (Jan 2nd):

Sundance: 4.29"
Tibble Fork: 2.48"
Collins: 1.82"
Mill D North: 1.40"
Farmington SNOTEL: 2.2"
Snowbasin Boardwalk: 2.84"
Ben Lomond Peak SNOTEL: 3.50"

That's the good news.  The bad news is that snow levels have been high (reaching as high as 9000 feet late yesterday in the central Wasatch) so this is yet another storm period in which the lower elevations got skunked.  The base of Park City, for example, remains free of natural snow.  

Source: https://www.parkcitymountain.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

Thoughts and prayers to the Wasatch Back.

At mid elevations, where there is snow, its DENSE and water logged.  At the Ben Lomond Peak SNOTEL (7600 feet), there's currently 8.2" of water packed into a snowpack that is only 22" deep.  That's a water content of 37% or a density of 370 kg/m3, as one might find in a maritime snowpack.  

Meanwhile, in the Salt Lake Valley, we finally cracked the smog or fog at around noon today.  Yesterday afternoon there were some great views of the valley fog from the Avenues.

Paraphrasing Albus Dumbledore, "pity the low elevations and, above all, those elevations without snow."

Good Riddance to 2025

Happy New Years from the Wasatch Weather Weenies.

2025 is now in the rearview and I'm not sad to see it go.  It was a tough year for science, higher eduction, the climate system, and at least for the start of the 2025/26 ski season, snow.

Let's begin with the Murderer's Row of climate statistics for Salt Lake City.

First, 2025 was the warmest year on record (since 1875) with an averge temperature of 57.9°F.

The last 3 months of the year and the first 3 months of the 2026 water year (Oct-Dec) were also the warmest on record, with an average temperature of 48.9°F.

And of course December was the warmest on record with an average temperature of 43.7°F.

Shifting gears to the mountains and focusing on the past three month, water-year-to-date precipitation (water equivalent) is actually not all that bad.  Many stations are within 90 to 109% of median (green) and those that are lower than that are withing 90 to 89% of median.  

As shown for Snowbird, a big contributor was the early October rains.  Those were followed by a long dry stretch in late October and November.  December precipitation though hasn't been all that bad.  

The problem, however, is warmth. The early October precipitation was mostly rain.  Even at upper elevations, it didn't add up to much.  Then the precipitation we have had this month has occurred with exceptional warmth for December.  Natural snow cover below 8000 feet is currently scant due to a significant fraction of December precipitation falling as rain instead of snow.  Even above 10000 feet you can find a rain crust in the central Wasatch from the post-Christmas storm.  Snowmaking conditions have been limited.

And today snow levels will eventually get to about 8500 feet. 

So, the story of 2025 in northern Utah was warmth, warmth, warmth.  Good riddance. Let's hope 2026 is better.