Monday, May 7, 2018

How Can Snow Freeze When Temperatures Are Above 32˚F?

If you were skiing early in the morning this past weekend, you may have noticed that the snow surface was frozen despite temperatures being above 32˚F.  Conversely, there are times when the snow surface is melting but temperatures are below 32˚F.  How can this happen?

The reason is that there are several energy sources and sinks for the snowpack besides the direct exchange of heat with the atmosphere.  The direct exchange of heat with the atmosphere is known as sensible heat flux.  When the atmosphere is warmer than the snow surface, the sensible heat flux is typically positive, which by itself would yield either a warming snow surface or melting snow if the snow surface was at 32˚F, but there are other sources and sinks that can also play a role, as depicted below.



Latent heat flux is produced by the exchange of moisture with the atmosphere.  If the air is dry, and ice is sublimating (or water evaporating if the snow surface consists of both water and ice), this has a cooling effect on the snow surface.  Alternatively, if the air is moist, it is possible for water vapor to condense on the snowpack and release heat, which has a warming effect on the snow surface.

Sensible and latent heat fluxes are related to the difference in temperature and moisture content, respectively, of the snow surface and atmosphere, but are also affected by wind speed and turbulence.  For example, a dry, windy day typically yields stronger sublimation and cooling of the snowpack than a calm day.

But there's more to the story than sensible and latent heat fluxes.  Absolutely critical are the roles of longwave and shortwave radiation, the former emitted by the snowpack, clouds, atmosphere, and other "terrestrial" objects and the latter emitted primarily by the sun.

Downwelling longwave radiation from the atmosphere and clouds is absorbed by the snowpack, which also emits radiation at a rate dependent on the snow-surface temperature.  If the snow absorbs more longwave radiation than it is emitting, the net longwave radiation is positive.  By itself, this would warm the snowpack or melt it if the snow temperature were 32˚F.  Conversely, if the snow absorbs less long-wave radiation than it is emitting, the net longwave radiation is negative.  By itself, this would cool (or freeze) the snowpack.  A snow surface can freeze when atmospheric temperatures are above 32˚F if the the longwave energy loss exceeds sensible heat flux.

On Saturday morning, my son and I ski toured in White Pine Canyon.  In most areas, the snow surface was initially frozen, despite air temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s.  At that time, the sensible heating of the snowpack by the atmosphere would, by itself, act to warm and melt the snow surface, albeit slowly since temperatures were just above the melting point.  However, overnight skies were clear or covered by just a thin veil of high clouds.  Under such conditions, the incoming longwave radiation was small and the net longwave radiation was strongly negative.  The longwave energy loss exceeded the gain from sensible heat fluxes, enabling the snow surface to freeze.  Also assisting was the dry atmosphere, which resulted in a small amount of cooling from sublimation.

We noticed that the snow was sometimes not frozen but soft near the trees.  In those areas, the snow surface received significant longwave radiation from the trees and the net longwave energy loss was likely much smaller and unable to offset the sensible heating sufficiently to freeze the snowpack.

During the day, there is an additional energy source, shortwave radiation.  The amount of solar radiation incident on a slope depends on the time of day and the slope aspect.  At our latitude during the winter, south aspects receive more incident solar radiation than north aspects.  East aspects see a morning peak in incident radiation, west aspects an afternoon peak.  Total incident solar radiation from sunrise to sunset is largest on south aspects.

There are, however, some important seasonal differences.  At our latitude, after the spring equinox, the sun rises and sets north of east and west, respectively.  For a time after sunrise and before sunset, the north aspects actually receive more incident solar radiation than the south aspects.  This effect is largest on the summer solstice (around June 21).  In addition, the difference in incident solar radiation at solar noon between a north and south aspect is largest on the winter solstice and smallest on the summer solstice.  For example, at solar noon on December 21st, there is about a 1200 W/m2 difference in incident solar radiation between a 30º south aspect and a 30º north aspect at our latitude.  On June 21st, the difference is only about 400 W/m2.

One of the reasons why I like ski touring in White Pine in the spring is that there are many aspects and slope angles and you can chose your route depending on what the sun and snowpack are doing on any given morning.  I am a big fan of choice when ski touring for reasons related to safety, creativity, and intellectual stimulation.

Finally, it is worth noting that the amount of radiation absorbed by the snowpack, and thus available to warm or melt the snow, is dependent on the ice crystal types, whether the snow is dry or wet (the latter consisting of both frozen and liquid water), and the presence of impurities like dust.  New snow absorbs less shortwave radiation than old snow.  Clean old snow absorbs less radiation than dusty or dirty old snow.

There is another source or sink of energy for the snowpack that I've ignored here and that is the transfer of heat with the ground.  In the midlatitudes, the ground beneath the snowpack is typically very near 32˚F.  In a deep snowpack during the spring, this is not a major player.  In a shallow snowpack during winter, however, the transfer of heat from the ground can create a strong temperature contrast between the base of the snowpack and the snow surface that leads to the development of faceted crystals known as depth hoar.

To conclude, there's a lot going on to affect the snow than just the air temperature.  Often it is the radiation, either the net longwave or shortwave, that is playing a dominant role in the snowpack evolution.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

That's a Wrap

I've never been a fan of Utah spring skiing.  Often there's a mixture of sticky mush in the sun or crust in the shade.  The transition from carveable to manky is often abrupt.  It's hard to find confidence inspiring spring conditions here. 

This morning at Alta offered up what I think was some of the best spring skiing I've seen in Utah.  High speed groomers on Sugarloaf for a bit first thing, then Collins.  Then, after about 11, things were near ideal on Jitterbug, Stonecrusher, and HighBoy.  They were steep and smooth, firm and carveable.  There were some bumps on HighBoy, but they were round and medium-radius.  At noon, it was time to call it quits and end the lift-served season with a smile on my face.

As far as skiing the rest of the season goes, two words come to mind: Road Trip.  The Wasatch snowpack is going fast and, as can be seen below, is becoming snirty quickly as last weeks snow melts and percolates through the snowpack. 


If you have the time, better (and deeper) spring skiing will probably be found elsewhere over the coming weeks, especially to the north and northwest. 

Saturday, May 5, 2018

Cinco de Mayo White Corn Harvest

Last weekend the snowpack was very well consolidated, but quite snirty.  Call it yellow corn if you'd like.  

With some fresh snow earlier this week, the top few inches up high wasn't as consolidated as last weekend, but it was white, so we harvested some white corn for Cinco de Mayo.  





The snow is going fast now at low elevations.  The usual snow bridges are gone, but the White Pine Creek is relatively easy to ford in areas where the terrain gradient is modest.


I would guess that by next weekend the snowpack below about 8500 feet will be close to kaputt even on north aspects.  The yellow corn will also be back.

Friday, May 4, 2018

The End Is Nigh

All ski seasons come to an end.  We are following up our sub-par winter with a dry and warm spring, which means the end is nigh for winter 2017/18.  The storms earlier this week were simply a futile effort to stave off the inevitable.  We are now transitioning into a period of warm, dry weather that will serious damage what is left of the snowpack.  

Model forecasts for the next 7 days show scant precipitation and above average temperatures.  The NAEFS ensemble, for example, generates a mean of just a few hundredths of an inch of water equivalent across much of the state.  Due to dryness and warmth, snow probabilities are near zilch for the period.
The plume for Alta Collins shows scant precipitation.  A few members of the Canadian ensemble give us .1-.2 inches of water in fits and starts here and there.  
Longer range forecasts are always dicey, but aren't optimistic either.  The end is nigh.  From here on out, take advantage of weak cold frontal passages for more supportable corn.  And remember, when the going gets tough, the tough roadtrip.  Deep snowpacks exist to the north.  

Thursday, May 3, 2018

The Front Range Bests the Cottonwoods in the Late Spring

Utah powder skiers like to look down there noses at Colorado and for the most part with good reason.  If you are a resort skier, Alta and Snowbird get more snow, have more frequent powder days, and have better terrain than any resort in Colorado.  In the backcountry, the Park Range north of Steamboat gets quite a bit of snow, but for the most part, the Cottonwoods are snowier than the mountains of Colorado.

That changes, however, in the spring when portions (maybe all) of the Front Range get bragging rights, as evident in my Twitter feed this morning.

and quotes like "ski the snow on the ground, not the date on the calendar."


Late season snow is not uncommon in the Front Range.  In fact, at Berthoud Pass, the snowiest months of the year are March and April.  And if you compare the mean monthly snowfall at Berthoud Pass to Alta, you find that while Alta has bragging rights for most of the winter, Berthoud is in a near tie in April and bests Alta in May.  

Mean monthly snowfall at Alta (Blue) and Berthoud Pass (Orange) based on data from the Western Region Climate Center.  Note that the averaging periods differ, but this is a blog, so we won't worry about such minor details.  
In part, this reflects the fact that Berthoud Pass is higher than Alta and receives a greater fraction of precipitation as snow in the late spring.  However, it also reflects seasonal circulation changes. Although Alta receives more precipitation (water equivalent) then Berthoud from September to April, Berthoud is wetter from May to August.  May is a transition month in which the two sites receive nearly equal precipitation, but Berthoud gets more snow due to it's elevation and colder climate. 


So, if you are a Colorado powder skier, patience is a virtue.  Your best season is from March to early May (ignoring caustic solar effects!).

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Whither the Mountain Accord?

Source: mountainaccord.com
I'm wading carefully into political waters today because I, like many readers of this blog, am concerned about the future of the Wasatch Range.

After a long process, the Mountain Accord was an agreement on a series of actions designed to preserve the watershed and the environment of the Wasatch Range.  Finalized on 13 July 2015, signatories spanned a wide range of offices and interests groups including the Governor, Mayor of Salt Lake County, members of the state legislature, representatives from private entities (e.g., Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce, Nature Conservancy, Save Our Canyons, Ski Utah), ski resorts (Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Alta), and additional individuals.  I attended a few of the environmental meetings and contributed to the preparation of a short section on climate change.  A full overview of the Mountain Accord process and the signed document (i.e., "The Accord) is available at http://mountainaccord.com/.

The Accord probably provided nobody with everything they wanted and there have been some complaints about the process.  However, it was a remarkable agreement, one that is probably the best that we could hope for given the complexities of Wasatch land ownership, jurisdiction, and the like.  Nevertheless, here we sit today, nearly three years later, and progress on intended outcomes, agreed-upon actions, land exchanges, and the like have been feeble.  Political waters have shifted.  Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker has been replaced by Mayor Jackie Biskupski.  County Mayor Ben McAdams is running for Congress.  Donald Trump was elected President.  Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who introduced legislation to create a Central Wasatch National Conservation and Recreation Area, has left Congress.  At the time of introduction, he said, "Utah once again leads the way in demonstrating the power of a collaborative approach to local problems. I’m pleased that so many parties with such varied agendas could come together in agreement on a way forward for our beloved Wasatch Mountains. This bill will guide our growth and preservation efforts for decades to come."

I hope this opportunity is not truly lost.  If it is, we will look back with deep regret as the Wasatch Range dies a death from a thousand cuts over the coming years.