Heat Wave Numbers

It is snowing today (Thursday) in Innsbruck, the first valley snow since we arrived in late February.  It's just above freezing so that the snow is sticking on cold surfaces, but sidewalks and roads are snow free.  Below is the view from my office. 

I haven't thought about the weather in Utah in a few days.  I knew it was going to be hot, but now that I'm checking the numbers, I'm pretty blown away.  Multiple days at or above 80, including an 84(!) on   Saturday March 21. 

Let's put those numbers into historical context.  During the 20th century, the highest March temperature recorded at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 78°F, reached on 24 March 1956 and 26 March 1960.  During the 21st century, we have tied or topped that number 14 times.  This includes reaching 80°F for the first time on 31 March 2012 and reaching or exceeding 80°F five times in the current heat wave, including the mind-boggling 84°F.

Let's dig a little deeper.  For the 8-day period ending yesterday (Wednesday, March 25), the average maximum temperature was 78.3°F.  The previous March record for an 8-day period was 74.4°F set in 2017.  The 20th century record, 70.0°F, was set in 1960.  So, the average maximum temperature for this stretch is an astounding 8.3°F higher than anything observed in March during the 20th century.  

How about average temperature?  For the 8-day period ending yesterday (Wednesday, March 25), the average temperature was 64.2°F.  The previous March record was 61.6°F set in 2017.  The 20th century record, 57.8°F, was set in 1910.  Thus, for average temperature the current 8-day stretch is 6.4°F warmer than anything observed in March during the 20th century.  

I just pulled up the Alta website and noticed they are closing Wildcat and Collins Gulch early due to unseasonable warmth.

Source:Alta.com

We are deep in uncharted territory.  There is no historical analog for the current March heat wave.  Nothing is even close.    

You Were Warned

Mind boggling temperatures from the western United States currently.  Even watching from a distance here in Austria, they blow me away. 

As I write this, it is Friday morning in Austria and some of the numbers for Thursday in the US are not in yet.  Thus I'm going to use observations from Wednesday to illustrate the scale and intensity of this event before boring into what data I have access to from Thursday.  

Below are the rankings for high temperatures on Wednesday relative to prior March 18ths.  Wide spread records for the date across the southwest US but even all the way up into Montana (asterisks indicate a tie for the highest temperature of the date).  It appears every western state had at least one station that tied or set a record temperature for the date.  Washington was the "coolest" western state, but even there, Chelan tied their record high.   

Source: https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php

Departures from average were impressively high.  Many sites were more than 20°F above average, and this is likely the 1991-2020 average so departure relative to the now old and obsolete 20th century average would be even bigger.  Some sites were at or above 25°F above average.  I couldn't find a +30, but maybe it's in there somewhere.    

Source: https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php

Wednesday's highest temperature was 108°F at a location near North Shore, CA, which is not on the Pacific Ocean but instead the Salton Sea.  Yesterday (Thursday), Palm Springs hit 107, Thermal 108, and Indio 108.  I believe those 108s are all time monthly maximum temperature records for March and possibly all time for the entire US.  Adding to the misery a bit further east is 106 in Yuma and 105 in Phoenix.  

Records in the Palm Springs Area go back to 1922.  In 1938 they hit 100 in March for the first time.  In 1966 104.  In 1988 103. And now this year 106 (Wednesday) and 107 (Thursday).  In Thermal, records go back to 1951.  They hit 102 in 1966 and 1988 and now 107.  

Meanwhile in Salt Lake City, yesterdays 79 was a record for the date but not the month.  The monthly record is still 80, set on 31 March 2012.  Don't worry.  We'll likely set a new record on Friday and/or Saturday.  

Utah ski areas are suffering.  Eagle Point and Cherry Peak are closed.  Snowbasin's last day is Sunday.  That's a major Utah ski resort, ranked #1 in the US by some surveys and rankings, with a substantive snowmaking system, packing it in on March 22nd.  I looked at the webcam from the base of Wildcat yesterday and I simply could not believe it. It doesn't even seem possible.  

https://www.snowbasin.com/the-mountain/web-cams/

My heart goes out to the resort, which moved heaven and Earth for us this winter for our field campaign.  Despite a slow start to the season, we actually got some great data and will learn a lot, but never in my wildest dreams did I expect to see such a sparse natural snowpack in mid March.  

Here are a few SNOTEL observations based on data from Wednesday, the most recent data that I have available as I write this. There is no snow at Ben Lomond Trail. Median for March 18 is 17.6".  The snowpack at Ben Lomond Peak (7690 ft) appears to be ripe (i.e., it has warmed through depth to 0ºC) and has declined 3.3 inches from its peak and sits just above it's all time low for the date.  Snowbird is not at an all-time low, but it also appears to have declined some from its peak, although that site is a little flaky so I'm not going to fully endorse that as reality (maybe someone can comment).  That said, all other SNOTEL sites in the central Wasatch have seen declines in total snowpack water equivalent in the past few days.  Not necessarily a lot, but some.  

My view of these events is that they are not the new normal, but they are the new extreme, at least for now.  We should expect natural climate variability to still give our winters and snowpacks ups and downs in the coming years, including some good or even great snow years (as we just had in 2022/23).  But, we are seeing an emerging trend to warmer conditions, meaning more frequent, more intense, and longer duration heat waves, more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, more mid-winter snowmelt events, etc.  These trends, caused by human-caused global warming, will have the biggest impact on snowfall and snowpack in the lower elevations, as we have seen this season, but will also bring change to the upper elevations.  

The reality is that you were warned.  Some of you took it seriously.  Others have called it a hoax and even today are working to dismantle the outstanding US climate-science enterprise, such as breaking up world-class research institutes like the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  Still others are pushing fossil fuels and delaying a transition to a lower-carbon world.  

Due to the slow response of the climate system and socio-economic change, we are already committed to more warming in the next 20-30 years (maybe longer).  Will the powers that be continue to resist change and pursue a high carbon, fossil fueled future?  Good luck with that.  

My "Run of Fame"

Call it a guilty pleasure given the industrial-scale nature of the resort development, but I absolutely love skiing from valley to valley and village to village in the Arlberg region of western Austria where lift-served skiing extends from St. Anton to the south to Warth to the north, a distance of 16 km as the crow flies and much farther as the winter-sports enthusiast skis. 

I've skied the Arlberg on several days over the years, but yesterday, for the first time, did the full trip from St. Anton to Warth and back.  It was a good day for it with mainly clear skies, a good hard freeze allowing the groomers to hold up well except on south aspects, no lift lines, and relatively uncrowded slopes (by Arlberg standards).  I had enough time to not only get to Warth and back, but also to do some side trips to other lifts and villages.

I caught the first Galzigbahn tram at 8:30 and followed the following village-by-village route: St. Anton -> Rauz (not really a village but a place) -> Zurs -> Zug -> Lech (really above Lech) -> Warth -> Lech -> Zurs -> Rauz -> Stuben -> Rauz -> St. Christoph -> St. Anton.

It was one of the biggest days of skiing I've ever had.  When I got back to St. Anton, I had covered in total about 97 km, including lift distances.  I ended up skiing a bit more to get that over 100 km.  In the end Strava suggested a total distance of 103.8 km, total skiing distance of 62.4 km, and total vertical of 12,003 meters.  

Strava has its accuracy limitations, but those number sound good to me so I'm sticking with them.  

There is actually a ski route in the Arlberg known as the Run of Fame that extends from just south of St. Anton to Warth.  What I did was a bit different than that so I'll call it "My Run of Fame."  The actual Run of Fame is 85 km long with 18,000 vertical meters of skiing.  Based on my experience yesterday, one would probably need no lift lines, no breaks, and no turns to accomplish that.  I won't be giving it a try.  

I didn't waste time taking pictures until I got to the top of the Trittkopf II Bahn above Zurs.  I wanted to be at the "tip of the spear" of skiers leaving St. Anton as they can really clog up the liftlines.  However, it was when I got here that I realized it was not going to be a busy day and I could take some photos.

Descending to Zurs. 

One of highlights of the Arlberg, if it is not crowded (and this is rare), is skiing from the top of the Madlochbahn above Zurs to the village of Zug.  There are no lifts near this route so if there aren't many skiers around (a rarity), it has a bit of a quiet feel.  About half way down you can look northeastward down the upper Lechtal to the village of Lech. 

Once above Zug, there's great views of the ski terrain above Lech.  The Steinmahder lift services the attractive but south facing terrain in the photo below.  I did a side excursion to check it out.  

I think did some more skiing and road a bunch of lifts to get to Warth.  

Warth is in the wet northern rim of the Alps and is considered one of the snowier ski areas in Europe.  It also has a predominantly northern aspect.  It felt a bit more like winter here.

At this point I'd been skiing non-stop for three hours, so I stopped for some skiwasser and strudel mit vanillasauce at a mountain hut.  

I've had better, but the calories were appreciated.  

Getting from Lech to Warth or Warth to Lech involves taking a gondola that traverses some flat and convoluted terrain between the two resorts.  The photo below is taken from the top of the lifts above Warth looking back toward the ski terrain above Lech.  I've indicated the gondola with a line labeled "Lech-Warth."  It actually turns to a chondola with interspersed detachable chairs for the last bit of the route (after the bend).  One can also see the upper part of the ski area above Lech, the route from the Madlochbahn to Zug (approximate with Zug blocked by terrain), the lift-served terrain above Zurs, and the route of the Rufikopfbahn cable cars from Lech to the top of the Rufikopf from where one can ski back to Zurs.  

On the gondola ride back to Lech, I was on with a group speaking an unknown language.  The lift stopped for a long time.  At some point someone from the group asked me where I was from in English.  I said Utah.  They then responded "Ah, Alta." Lol.  They were from Sweden, where apparently there is a chapter of Altaholics Anonymous.  We had a good chat.  

After some more skiing I descended into Lech, pictured below.  The valley at center right goes to Zurs.  The Rufikopfbahns ascend the steep avalanche fence covered slope above Lech and then more open terrain to the top of the Rufikopf.  Look closely for the towers.  

From the top of the Rufikopf you ski some of the flattest terrain on the face of the Earth, but you don't care because the scenery is spectacular.   The groomed tracks in the center of the photo are for snow hikers, but the ski trail on the far left is also low angle.  

I did more skiing and rode more lifts.  Eventually I got to Stuben.  This village is less visited and I had long runs to myself there,.  Below is the view from the summit lift looking back toward Zurs, which is in the valley near the center of the photo.  

I then decided to get back to St. Anton to go home, but before doing that I thought I would ski down to St. Christoph so that I visited all of the villages in the Arlberg.  St. Christoph also has sentimental appeal because I stayed here with others from the Salt Lake Olympic Organizing Committee during the 2001 Alpine World Championships.  I'd love to stay there again, but its is well outside of my price range.  

And finally, the descent to St. Anton.  

Another neat thing about this day is that I took the train from Innsbruck to St. Anton.  It's about an hour and fifteen minutes each way and it puts you within about a 5 minute walk of the lifts in St. Anton.  So, from my apartment in Innsbruck to Warth without a personal vehicle.  Very nice.  

Mid-Slope Cumulus

The deep valleys of the Alps are great places to learn mountain meteorology. The have somewhat regular thermally forced valley and slope flows when the large-scale flow is weak and fascinating terrain-forced flows when the large-scale flow is strong.  Clouds are frequently present and are useful for understanding local flow patterns.

Saturday night bought valley rain and mountain snow to western Austria.  Sunday morning I went for a hike above our apartment to a mountain hut.  On the return, I noticed shallow mid-slope cumulus clouds on the south side of the valley, beneath a more layered stratiform cloud that was hovering at higher elevations close to ridgeline.  

The local time was about 1200 so I suspect that surface heating was leading to upslope flow that generated those shallow clouds.  In the wake of the storm, the airmass over the valley was relatively moist and reached saturation with a little ascent to generate the clouds.  Given their shallow nature, the cumulus clouds suggest that the low-level upslope flow was not penetrating all the way to the ridgeline, but was confined to the lower valley atmosphere. 

That's the hypothesis anyway, although it's hard to evaluate with observed data in this case.  

Astounding Forecasts for March

The models are putting out some remarkable height and temperature forecasts for Utah and the southwest US for March.  I'm even a little late getting to the party given that the NWS issued a statement at 2 PM MDT on March 12th for potentially record-breaking temperatures by the middle of next week. 

The synoptic setup is the development of a high-amplitude upper-level ridge over the southwest.  As an example, below is the ECMWF HRES foreacast valid 0000 UTC 20 March (6 PM MDT Thursday) with 500-mb heights above 5940 meters over Arizona and 700-mb temperatures of 10°C over Salt Lake City. 

For the southwest, these are exceptionally high 700-mb temperatures.  The highest March 700-mb temperature every recorded in an upper-air sounding over northern Utah is 8.0°C.  We may be above that for a few days later next week and into the weekend.  The 700-mb temperatures over southern Utah and the desert southwest are also at record levels.  

The seasonal snowpack in the southwest is already on life support.  As of March 12, watersheds in southern Utah, southern Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico were at or below 50% of median snowpack for the date.  Along the Mogollon Rim, they were below 10%.  

For northern Utah, another perspective is provided by the wet-bulb 0.5°C plumes for Alta-Collins in the lower left of the plot below.  Dramatic warming occurs early next week and in most of the ensemble members this level is above the elevation of the Alta-Collins site (9600 feet) for several days thereafter.  

I saw some online claims of a "miracle March" in Utah because we got some snow to start the month. In reality, there was no miracle.  We got some snow, but not an unusual amount for what we used to call "winter" and now we are going to see the heat big time with a late March sun.  Its not May, but the sun angle is high enough now to do significant damage.  

The mountain snowpack, spring runoff, and Great Salt Lake do not care about hope or wishful thinking.  

Skiing Axamer Lizum

There are a number of "small" ski areas in the Innsbruck area including Glungezer, Patscherkofel, Berger Alm, Mieders, Schlick 2000, Mutterer Alm, Oberpfuss, and Axamer Lizum.  I put small in quotes because many of these areas may have a small number of lifts and trails, but they also have substantial vertical drops, exceeding 1000 meters (3300 feet) in some cases.  

The most popular with the locals is probably Axamer Lizum, which "only" has a vertical drop of about 760 meters/2500 feet, but has a good variety of pistes and off piste terrain.  It is located in a beautiful valley just to the southwest of Innsbruck, about a 30 minute drive or 40-45 minute bus ride from town.  We skied it today enjoying the sunshine and spring conditions.

It is my understanding that lizum is a Tyrolean word for the end of a valley or high alpine pasture surrounded by a high alpine amphitheater.  I'm not sure if that is an accurate translation, but it is an apt description of the valley in which Axamer Lizum sits, which ends at the base of the spectacular Kalkkögle Alps.  

The resort mainly faces east or east-northeast and gets the morning sun.  Morning laps on fresh corduroy with views of Innsbruck and the Inn Valley are a great way to start the day.  

The summit of Axamer Lizum is on a peak called Hoadl.  As is the case with most peaks in this part of the Alps, there is a summit cross, in this case the German translates loosely to "For God and Homeland." That said, heimat as I understand it does not translate well to English given it's deep cultural meaning and sense of belonging to the area.  One can certainly see why people love it here.  

West of Axamer Lizum one can look into the Senderstal or Senders Valley.  I'd like to send a few lines in that valley. 

Actually, I have ski toured to a couple of the 3000 meter summits far in the distance.  Good memories.  

Speaking of lines, the Kalkkögle Alps are not only beautiful but are a veritable "Chuting Gallery" to steal the phrase from Andrew McClean.  

Backing out a bit for a broader perspective.  

With no significant lift lines, the vertical added up quick and I was on a bus back to town just after 12.  It was a perfect spring morning.  

End of German Glacier Skiing

Lift-served glacier skiing in Germany will come to an end this year when the Schneefernerkopf lift on the Zugspitze, Germany's highest peak and on the border with Austria, is dismantled.

Source: t-online. 

Glaciers across the Alps are shrinking and those on the Zugspitze are in rapid decline. The Shcneefernerkopf lift was on the Northern Schneeferner glacier (ferner is a word used for glacier in western Austria and southern Germany).  I took the photo below of the T-bar and glacier in August 2015 and even then it was suffering with essentially no seasonal snow coverage.

More information concerning the Northern Schneeferner and the rapidly declining remants of Germany's other three glaciers is available at https://zugspitze.de/glacier. 

Parties and Piste

I see that snow has recently returned to the Wasatch.  Hopefully you are getting some freshies in for me.

Here in Tyrol, a monster block remains in firm control, with some Saharan dust sprinkled in for good measure.  

Saturday I didn't ski, but I did have time for a quick tram ride up the Nordkettenbahn above Innsbruck.  There's a terrain park up there, which on Saturday was supplemented with a DJ, resulting in a crowd of youngsters more interested in dancing than skiing.  

The Saharan dust provided a bit of mood lighting.  I didn't stay long. 

Today we skied again at Stubai Glacier, which due to its high elevation is a reasonable option for escaping the mild spring conditions and thin snowpack found elsewhere.  You can find what appear to be some good turns in the photo below, but it hasn't snowed here in a long time so the tracks descending from left in the picture below are like dinosaur footprints preserved in sedimentary rocks – evidence of a former geological era in the Earth's lifetime.  

That said, the groomers at Stubai are firm but carvable and we are having fun.  At this point, my transformation to Professor Piste is complete.  

Saharan Dust

I'm getting settled in here in Innsbruck.  It's been a beautiful week here with temperatures reaching as high as 20°C (68°F) in town yesterday.  It's not great for the skiing, but if you can't have snow, its the next best thing.

Utahn's are well aquatinted with dust and so are people in the Alps as there is a very big source to the south, namely the Sahara Desert.  

Yesterday skies were clear of clouds and visibility was good.  A look at the weather camera that looks south toward the Wipp Valley and the Brenner Pass to Italy shows

Source: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/innsbruck

Late yesterday, as forecast, the dust began to move in.  Today the visibility is much worse, although it appears the paragliders aren't too concerned (dust of this concentration does not have that large of an impact on solar radiation and surface heating. 

Source: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/innsbruck

Geosphere, which provides weather services for Austria, has a very nice dust modeling system and it nicely illustrates the coverage of dust, which is even thicker in portions of the French and Swiss Alps.  

Source: https://portale.geosphere.at/hpEUgw/?p=HP_DUSTLOAD_EU&gl=EN

European operational numerical weather prediction is well ahead of the US now.  The Swiss, for example, are running an 11-member ensemble at 1-km grid spacing out to 30 hours 8 times a day and a 21 member ensemble at 2.1-km grid spacing out to 120 hours 4 times a day.  I can access an experimental forecast from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service or DWR) with 500-m grid spacing through the University here.  Not sure yet if I can share, but it did a spectacular job with the winds yesterday.  These forecasts all use the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model that was developed by DWR and the Max Plank Institute and is now used by several European countries and other countries outside of Europe including in South American, Africa, and Asia. 

Very impressive.