There's still not much to get excited about in the forecasts. The main weather feature of interest over the next several days is a cold front that is currently forecast to be moving through Utah Friday night.
Below is the GFS forecast valid 0600 UTC 25 November as an example of one model forecast showing some precipitation over northern Utah as the cold air is pushing in.
Right now, this looks like a "quick hitter" variety of storm. The GFS is putting out 0.57" of water and 8" of snow for Alta-Collins through 5 AM MST Saturday. The Utah Snow Ensemble members are less enthusiastic with a median of 0.09" of water and 1" of snow through that same time, although some members are slower with the system and give us some more into Sunday. Still it's not a lot. The snowiest member is putting down 20",. but that's not a likely scenario and perhaps we wore out our luck with the U's improbable win over K-State on Saturday. If we could get a few inches at Mountain Dell, maybe the Nordies would be in luck. That's possible but not probable.
Snowmaking conditions will, however, improve. There will be guns blazing.
Question, Jim:
ReplyDeleteHas climate change contributed to more and more of these fronts/storms flopping or getting revised downwards? If so, has it also increased the number of storms that surprise to the upside?
In other words, has climate change increased variability in forecasting snowfall totals? Has it increased both the variability and also biased it towards one direction (ie, more storms surprise to the upside or downside)?
Thanks for the blog posts!
I am unaware of any study that has looked at those things. We expect storms to become more intense and be separated by longer dry spells, but that's a general statement and I don't think that translates to the specifics you describe above.
ReplyDeleteHappy thanksgiving, Jim
ReplyDeleteJim, why don’t you post on twitter anymore?
ReplyDeleteKashmir klimate kooks?
DeleteThe meanness and cruelty was wearing on me and it became increasingly evident that I should drop social media to keep my sanity. It's a shame because it is great for sharing weather observations, etc.
DeleteLife is better without it.