Storm Update

Pretty good delivery of the white in the upper Cottonwoods yesterday afternoon and last night. As of 6 AM, Alta-Collins is already at 13 inches with 1.32" of water.  That's a mean water content of 10%, although I suspect it's right side up.  We need some high density snow to bury the coral reef anyway.  All in all this is good news.  

Radar early this morning showed a fairly active northwesterly flow pattern.    

Expect periods of snow in the northwesterly flow to continue today.  The HRRR really lights it up with .66" of water and 11.1" of snow at Alta from 7 AM to 5 PM MDT today.  The GFS is not as excited puts out .19" of water and 3.6" of snow.  A big reason for this discrepancy is the HRRR really gets things going in the northwesterly flow, including some lake effect, as illustrated by the forecast radar image for 2000 UTC (2 PM) this afternoon.  

And for the 6-h period ending at 0000 UTC (6 PM MDT) the HRRR is generating 7.5" of snow for Alta and even higher amounts along the Alpine ridge to the west in the Lone Peak area.  

A real question is how much to buy into the HRRR forecast?  I'm inclined to expect another 4-8" at Alta-Collins for 7 AM this morning through 5 PM this afternoon, which sits between the GFS and HRRR.  I'd put the odds of going above that higher than below.  How bout we throw in the chance of a T-storm too?  Welcome to spring.