How About Something Different?

Many people are likely suffering from spring fever this weekend with sunshine and mild temperatures along the Wasatch Front.  Saturday's high temperature at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 56F and the National Weather Service is going for 61F for today (Sunday).

Source: NWS.  Downloaded at 8:41 AM MST

Nevertheless, the snow held up fairly well at Alta yesterday, although I only skied until 1:30.  If you are wondering, the record high for today is 68 and for the month is 69 (set on Feb 28).  We should fall short of these. 

A look at that forecast though does show something "different" on top for Monday night when a surface cold front and upper-level trough will move through northern Utah.  The GFS forecast valid 0600 UTC 27 February (11 PM Monday night) is shown below, showing the front draped over northern Utah.

Mountain snow and some valley rain look to develop Monday afternoon. Snow levels will likely fall to the valley floor by about 11 PM. Most of the action looks to be overnight on Monday, although we could see a few snow showers during the day on Tuesday.  

Most members of our downscaled SREF are putting out 1–4" of snow for the airport.  

Our HRRR-derived snowfall product, which goes through 1200 UTC 27 Feb (5 AM MST Tuesday), is putting out 2.2" for the airport and 3.6" for Cottonwood Heights.  

Right now, the National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory up for 1 to 3 inches in the Salt Lake and Utah Valleys.  

Source: NWS.  Downloaded 9:08 AM 25 Feb 2024

Forecasts evolve, so keep an eye on things and plan your Tuesday commute accordingly.  For larger accumulations in the valley, the front would need to be more productive or stall, or the post-frontal environment on Tuesday will need to be more favorable than currently advertised by the models.